Dave, there are many non DRAM applications that will use RMBS derived technologies, some of these were mentioned here before, if memory serves, Tate said that he expect the actual memory revenues to be no more than 35% of their total royalties stream, but memory is a "fickle thing".
As for forecasting, I could not agree with you more, HDTV was forecasted 15 years ago to be the mainstay in TV 10 years ago (five years down the "then road"), GaAs was forecasted to be 20% of the semi markets by 1995, it is still less than 5% or so, the then "High Temperature superconductors", were forecasted in 1988 to be in excess of a $1 billion market by the "turn of the century" (take your pick for 2000 or 2001), telling us that liquid nitrogen is cheaper than beer, but tell that to those few people trying to make a living from it (AMSC, ISCO and few others), who forgot the basic principle of new product introduction, "you got to be twice as good at half the price if you want to find a place under the sun with a new product".
Zeev |
