Vendit,
Everyone on this thread and in the press has been jumping up and down about broadband without ever asking an extremely important question, namely, how much is broadband worth in revenues to AOL. Once distribution is settled--cable, wireless, POTS, whatever--it comes down to revenues and I suspect the revenues from broadband distribution methods may be less than many people assume. Why? Cannibalism. Most cable or wireless AOL customers will come from the ranks of existing phone modem customers. AOL will charge them a bit more but AOL's costs will also be higher and from an ecommerce advertising point of view, it's still only one person whether they get AOL over phone lines, cable, or airwaves. I doubt there is an enormous pool of newbies just waiting for AOL to get cable or wireless distribution before signing up. Cable, wireless and whatever else "AOL Anywhere" comes to men have to be available to keep AOL up with current technology (just like TV stations have to buy HDTV equipment just to keep up, even though it bring in no new money) but I doubt broadband brings in new customers. What brings in new customers is the same thing that brings new viewers to a TV station, content.
Best,
--Steve |
