John, here's a quick critique of the Gruntal report.
DRAM PRICES STILL WEAK; MU'S FUNDAMENTALS INTACT
Right from the get go a logical inconsistency. Good start.
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Micron Technology is scheduled to report its fiscal (May) third quarter on June 23 after the market closes.
That's pretty much it for the highlights.
The lowlights break new ground. I know it's tough to do with this stock, but really this is quite a stunning piece of work:
Short term, we believe that MU stock will likely sell on the news of the quarter since the stock moved over 34% from the
bottom in less than 30 days. Our estimate for the quarter is $0.10, the Street high and an extremely optimistic forecast; we
chose not to revise our estimate again as DRAM prices continue to slide. Consensus is $0.02. Since commodity prices
declined aggressively throughout the quarter and estimates were revised several times by the Street, we believe that investors
have already discounted the weak prices; therefore, MU will not be an earnings-driven story in the short term, and the current
valuation already supports this scenario. In addition, we expect MU to continue to expand its market share as other marginal
suppliers pull away from the market.
Bravissima!
Let's start with the obvious.
That is plain and simply a disgrace.
Ma'am do you or do you not believe they will earn 0.10 this quarter?
Actually, let's take a step back here.
Mona, with all due respect, you're a lot less important than you seem to think you are.
...we chose not to revise our estimate again as DRAM prices continue to slide...
The reason you "chose" not to revise your estimate would be what exactly? Because you believe it's a sound number? Reading that insulting bit of drivel over and over again leaves this reader under the impression that you have doubts in regards to its soundness. For example, why would you go out of your way to state "we chose not to revise our estimates"?
Since commodity prices declined aggressively throughout the quarter and estimates were revised several times by the Street, we believe that investors have already discounted the weak prices; therefore, MU will not be an earnings-driven story in the short term...
Then what's the big deal about revising your numbers.
Ma'am do you understand how infuriating that type of garbage is?
You say it's not an earnings-driven story (which I agree with to a point; everyone knows the Q sucked) and you make this choice not to revise your numbers.
Also, can you PLEASE get the fundamentals right.
Furthermore, Micron's balance sheet is strong and cash rich, totaling approximately $1.8 billion, almost $8.00 per
share, including the Intel (INTC-NASDAQ-$56.81-Strong Buy) investment. This investment should enable the company to
continue its conversions to 0.18-micron at an aggressive pace and further increase its market share.
So now we're back up to "almost $8.00 per share"?
Didn't you use almost identical language in a recent report in which you cited their "cash"/share as 6.50?
Do you have any idea what you are doing?
Good trading,
Tom
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