CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel?

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To: Harry Franks who wrote (6654)	6/23/1999 6:15:00 AM
From: zuma_rk	Read Replies (1) of 20297

OT: More Crafty analyses Just tooling around the E-Offering Site and came across this mini-research report on First Sierra Financial (BTOB). Worth reading, IMO, to glean the style of Mr. Craft's analytical style (BTW I know nothing about BTOB's business or prospects -- I'm just commenting on the style of the analysis presented): eoffering.com First Sierra -- In the Darwinian Struggle Among Companies in the $200 Billion Small Business Leasing Business, There Are Hundreds of Defenseless Creatures and Then There is First Sierra Financial (BTOB). 6/21/1999 First Sierra has become the de facto leader in Internet-based leasing. Today, $200 billion in annual lease activity is being ported rapidly to Internet-based merchant and shopping environments. As we see it the industry is ripe for consolidation and disintermediation of many small brokers will happen. First Sierra is prepared to capture the business which hits its sweet spot -- $30K lease amounts, or as much as 30% of the total market. If we imputed the valuation of NextCard -- a first mover in the business-to-consumer credit card space and a recently minted public company -- to First Sierra, we would support a near-term share valuation of approximately $500. Because First Sierra plays in the much more attractive business-to-business market, we believe one could easily argue for a 50-100% premium to NextCard's 400x Yr. 2002 EPS valuation. As a result, we believe the shares could easily move to $120 over the next 6-12 months and possibly much beyond thereafter. We enthusiastically recommend the shares of First Sierra Financial for purchase and rate the shares BUY. ****** FWIW -- E-Offering is a service designed to bring IPO's to us "little guys." You know -- non-professional investors, many of whom are probably brand new to the world of stocks. That being said, I don't know that I agree with throwing around a $500/share potential and a 50-100% premium over an already astronomical 400x multiple for a (probably) non-comparable company to NextCard...Especially when First Sierra trades today at $27 bucks and has a chart that looks like this: quote.yahoo.com (come to think of it, the August '98 part looks a little like our very own Checkfree)... ---well, what are ya gonna do...? Should be another interesting day in Dangerfield land... rk

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