Mark,
Two days ago, you post that LU will split at $110-120 by February, then today you post $40 by Christmas. Was that portfolio manager's argument about days sales outstanding that influential?
Evidence suggest that you are wrong about your $40 prediction.
1. Sources I checked with - Network managers at RBOCs and IXCs, Field Sales people at both LU and ASND - suggest a very strong June quarter indeed.
2. Due to the seasonal revenue pattern, sales will show big sequential growth - which has the mechanical effect of improving DSOs (hint: the denominator gets larger faster than the numerator) Furthermore, ASND's DSOs are in the low 70s - worth a day or two to LU. Finally, LU is making an effort to improve collections, also worth at least a couple days.
3. LU/ASND is planning a big roll out of new products and contract announcements, with an Analyst conference call Thursday night.
4. Goldman and CSFB, two of the biggest LU bulls on the street, have been prohibited from writing or commenting for the past 7 months due to their participation in the deal. Come Friday, expect upward revisions and Buy reiterations from both of these influential houses.
5. Forward P/E based on consensus (the appropriate PE measure) is 47 with consensus EPS growth expectations of nearly 25%. Cisco's forward P/E is 70 on consensus EPS growth expectations that are also nearly 25%.
Explain to me why LU ought to trade for $40 in December - a 27 multiple of forward consensus earnings, about the same as the S&P 500 average? |
