Berney, <<Jim, The monkeys throwing darts must be having a tough time!
Looking at 6,172 companies, 17.5% beat the Index for the 21% investment return, 14.8% provided a return between zero and the Index, and a Big 67.7% were negative for one year investment performance at May 31. While this is a slight improvement in the negative 71% at the end of February, it has got to lead one one to reflect on where the Bull is.
Over 3 years, only 14.7% of the 5,269 companies beat the 27% return of the Index, while 44.9% were negative. Over 5 years, only 16.7% of the 4,165 companies beat the 25.9% return of the Index, while 31.8% were negative. In fact, the number of companies that have beat the Index over 3 and 5 years has declined since February. It is a tough bull!>>
this is exactly what the poor a/d line has been telegraphing ever since it peaked about 14 months ago. what does it signify? it's saying that we are very late in the game. similar divergences between the a/d line and the indices were observable in '29 and '87. i know i sound like a broken record here, but the a/d line, money fleeing into the utilities and the disparity between the Fed's market valuation model and the market's actual value are warning signs par excellence. i won't even mention the ratio of bullish to bearish advisors..(oops, i just did!). so even though i believe the market may well blow off to new highs from here (mind you i'm not *certain*), i just know the party is going to be over soon.
regards,
hb |
