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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: LindyBill who wrote (3001)6/23/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: mauser96  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
I got back into MSFT in the high 70's using LEAPS . The DOJ is a wild card, but it seems likely that whatever the court case outcome 1) It will be years before the case is finally completed 2) Few of the possible outcomes will make much real difference to MSFT's profits 3) The odds are that MSFT will lose the case at this level but the remedies will not be draconian 4)Eventually the 2 sides will settle 5) as is typical of anti trust cases the points that are being disputed will be moot by the time the case is terminated. Time and technology shifts don't wait for the legal system..
I assume you are waiting for the trial end which may turn out to be the smart tactic. I suspect the market has discounted point #3 above but who really knows. Because of the uncertainty, I'm weighted more in CSCO than MSFT. After the trial I'll consider more MSFT, eventually aiming toward near equal weighting. MSFT is the prototypical gorilla. The court decision will be really bad only if it alters the gorilla status, especially control of the standard. This shouldn't be too hard to figure out, especially with the help of this thread. I think both companies face challenges as the hyper growth markets migrate away from their previous centers.
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