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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 37.99

-1.2%

3:51 PM EST

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To: Gerald Walls who wrote (84304)	6/23/1999 2:30:00 PM
From: Burt Masnick	Read Replies (5) of 186894

AMD is gonna have a CC tonite at 5:30 pm EDT. Some of the "it must be a pony" crowd on the AMD thread think it must be to announce wonderful happenings with the K7. Mostly cooler heads seem to think that they will announce hideous ASPs for the quarter (something they apparently just discovered) along with lousy volume for the quarter (something they also just discovered) along with the good news that the K7 is already shipping to selected customers. The price drop today so far is probably indicative of a dash to the exits from some large holders. Might be a good opportunity for those who think that the price of AMD will rise on K7 hoopla in a few weeks. My own view is that some of the customers they lost with the shipping problems last quarter never came back or came back timidly. That, coupled with agressive Celeron pricing, is likely causing an overhang of unsold and/or fire-sale prices on the low-end chips. The only good news in this that I can see is that most investors already expect the worst news short of bankruptcy from AMD for this quarter so it's difficult how they can disappoint. On the other hand, some investors may conclude that the company that shot itself in the foot so often has taken to shooting itself in places higher up the torso. My guess is that the K7/chipset volume will be limited until at least September. Which probably means another lousy quarter. As an aside, on a purely unscientific sample, I see proportionally fewer and fewer adds for the K6 and more and more adds for PII and PIII. On some weekends lately,in the local Long Island, NY newspaper Newsday, I had to search hard, in those full page adds with dozens of PC configurations for sale, to find an AMD processor. So I would guess that their sales volume (number of units sold this quarter) was lower than Q1. As I said above, a highly unscientific sample but scary if it is true nationwide.

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