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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Copia's daytrades/investments and thoughts

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To: RCJIII who wrote (16970)	6/23/1999 3:00:00 PM
From: Joe Copia	Read Replies (1) of 25711

from NUKE website: rhombic.com Semiconductor Wafers & Substrate: World Markets '99 Semiconductor wafers and substrates form the basis of the $800 billion worldwide electronics industry. Semiconductors have given rise to a proliferation of new products for information-based economies. This key technological driver accounts for 30% of economic growth in the US alone. The semiconductor industry has a long-term growth rate of 17% and exceeded $150 billion in 1998. The recent semiconductor industry slump and the international financial crises that inspired it are showing signs of remission. Silicon will remain the dominant material for substrates and wafers for the foreseeable future with demand exceeding $7 billion in 1999. The push for ever greater performance at lower prices has brought new wafer technologies into the market including epitaxial wafers and silicon-on-insulator structures, both of which are extending into high-end niches and fostering new opportunities. The reclaimed wafer market is emerging as an important factor in silicon technology. The savings brought about by using reclaimed wafers is expanding opportunities for test wafers as replacements for more expensive prime wafers for certain applications. Reclaimed wafers now comprise 10% of the market.. Beside silicon, other substrate and wafer materials are finding new applications and markets while fighting to keep their traditional markets. Gallium arsenide faces a strong challenge from silicon germanium for chips that can perform the same tasks at all but the highest frequency levels but at a much lower price. Compound semiconductors like indium phosphide are moving to new applications beyond photonics. Gallium nitride has undergone a successful demonstration as a blue laser generator. Silicon carbide is poised to take over large segments in high temperature and high power electonics. Other compound semiconductor material systems including II-IV materials like cadmium telluride and zinc selenide are experiencing steady growth in their niche applications with the promise of creating new markets for themselves in sensors and detectors. Germanium is experiencing growth due to its use in satellite solar cells. Sapphire as an insulator is serving as a substrate for gallium nitride and other materials and is experiencing growing demand. New markets and shifting demand will fuel the growth of semi-conductor wafers and substrates. The incredible growth in wireless and fiber optic communications, along with the advent of sub-$1000 PCs, cable boxes and satellite TV, and HDTV and DVD, will provide rapidly growing, long-term demand for semi-conductor wafers and substrates in their many manifestations.

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