My best guess is we're stuck in a range for a little while.
In support of the upward thrust notion: in ICGE and USI we're not just talking about rights here -- these are two of its best inet co's coming public. Not that this overshadows mp's points re NAV vs premium, but I would expect ICGE and USI to both be short-term home-runs. Remember when an IPO up 50% was huge? ICGE could be raised to $18-20 open and double quite easily. It will not get to $50 on day one, I don't think. Orthey could leave it at $8 to make it one ifthe most spectacular IPOs of recent memory (still $40 range)
What does everyone think the combined mkt cap of ICGE and USI *should* be?
I think, if anything MP was a bit high since I figure $50 shr=$6B in mkt cap. I think $4-5B is closer to reality, which puts the share price at closer to $40, and SFE's NAV at $720. Still that's a doubling of NAV, practically -- from $900 mm to $1.7 or more.
USI should come out at -- who knows? Still, we will be in the neighborhood of $1.8 B NAV, which works out to $53 NAV. Add in a premium for rights offerings and pipeline, and we should be in the $60-70 range, which is about where we are. That said, psychology will play a big role.
SFE also has $200 mm in cash they just raised, so the pipeline could become larger, the rts could become more valuable... |
