News out of Robbie Stevens...this came out at 2:06 PM today
(I am summarizing)
Rating - Long Term Attractive
Estimates for 2000 = $.60 by Q--> (.10)(.01).59 .12
Estimates for 2001 = $1.00 by Q--> .02 .02 .71 .24
REVS
Year2000- by Q 179, 199.1, 331.4, 287.9 = 997.5
Year2001 by Q 213.1, 228.4, 375.0, 335.0 = 1,151
3 Yr EPS Growth Rate 30%
book Value $8.27
ROA for Y2000E = 11.2%
ROI for Y2000E = 13.4%
-RS believe the Valley Media story will take longer to develop but feel VM's New Media represents a tremendous opportunity.
-VM posseses 70% of the market on a wholesale basis not to mention first mover status.
-Expect 50% CAGR in New Media biz
-Internet Revs ALONE could hit $1 BILLION in 2003, equiv to the 99 Revenue base
-As deep catalog fulfillment beomces more important to companies like AMZN VM's role in the supply chain will only increase and strengthen
-the warehouse has been moved and is operating today. The do not believe warehouses will have to be moved again--the location is very scalable and the move was the right decision for VM, and positions the co better to serve customers.
-Customers turn to VM for accurate fill rates, on time delivery and unrivaled breadth of product offerings. As such they will maintain their domainant market position
-Applying a 1x rev mulitple in 2000 the stocks market cap would be $429 million almost triple its current level.
-Continue to believe that shares will garner a 22.5x multiple of calender 2000 Esstimates of 88 cents over next 12 -18 mos.
-Attractive opportunity for long term investors
FINALLY, and these 2 quotes REALLY caught my eye:
"Importantly we believe no competitor can match Valley's inventory, fill rates or service levels. These factors should continue to differentiate the company, solidfy barriers to entry and sustain profitability. These are major factors supporting our bullish outlook for the shares."
"Management estimates that nearly 100% of ALL DVD sold over the Internet came thought Valley's warehouses"
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I am willing to bet that while "fools" sold the stock to $14 1/2, Robbie was scooping up shares...I am hoping JP Morgan comes out with some thing too. Can you believe it?--100% of all DVD and that market is growing as FAST as the internet!
Tommorow should be interesting with the press release we had tonight...its a GREAT sign they are going to use diigtal as well.
Phantom |
