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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Gary Burton who wrote (46830)6/24/1999 12:51:00 AM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Yes Gary, My view is that we are at a pretty critical OSX technical juncture here. This dance we are doing at the 50 dma is very important imo. If we break through it on the downside, then the downside risk is fairly substantial. If we rally the next couple of days and its a punk rally on low volume and and thin participation then that raises a huge red flag in this bulls eyes. We would most certainly then retest the 50 dma. Curiously enough, that would put us - time wise - just around the next API number. If that number is spectacularly bullish it would probably cause most to discount this quarters crummy earnings and power a new leg up. I mean, the Street would almost have to buy at 20+ wti. If the number is mediocre then we probably break the 50 dma indicating a drop to the 200 dma. Not immediately, mind you, there will probably be a rally back up to the 50 dma that will fail. After that failure then the trip to the 200 dma would begin in earnest. The 200 dma would then be at approximately 66. Hmmmm.

I've not gone to 100% cash by any means as the risk of a positive API is too great, but if the scenario I've just outlined does take place, I intend to be well hedged. Imo the key will be the 50 dma retest.

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