The growth potential of GSM in USA seems to hinge on two features: data and international roaming. Neither of these features has really been utilized in a big way yet: next winter is going to be a crucial time.
This fall the first reasonably sized internet phones are debuting in GSM-1900 - much is riding on how well US consumers respond to data applications. The Nokia 9000 series remains a niche product, because it demands real commitment from consumers - even the latest model is nearly twice as big as a regular handset. However, the new Nokia 7110 is going to weigh under 150 grams and deliver predictive text input, Yahoo search services, CNN news, etc. It should also be considerably cheaper than most internet phones, which tend to carry a hefty premium. This should give GSM a decisive advantage over TDMA, which is late in delivering data - if US consumers really go for data applications at this stage. AT&T's conception of dataphones rely on a separate networks for handling voice and data - the result being bulky, heavy handsets.
The GSM-900/1900 phones that can function in the 130 GSM-900 countries as well as in North America are also making their real debut this winter. So far the existing "worldphones" have not been actively advertized by the GSM operators and the roaming agreements have been messy and expensive. Voicestream/Omnipoint should have a much better shot at streamlining the roaming deals and focusing on this aspect of their service. The bigger involvement of Hutchison signaled by their new investment is excellent news. Hutchison is a highly succesful player in England, Hong Kong and other main European/Asian markets. They know how to sort out the roaming situation.
It seems that by stressing the twin advantages of data features and global roaming the new Voicestream/Omnipoint should have a plenty of unrecognized potential. I know that the US press is now obsessing about satellite phones as the only way to deliver global roaming. But whereas the Globalstar can deliver a 350 gram phone with 8 hours of satellite-mode stand-by time - Omnipoint will be able to deliver 150-gram GSM phones with 200 hours of stand-by time next winter... able to function in 130 countries in North America, Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia. The GSM-900/1900 handsets are going to be cheaper than satellite models as well. This is probably going to be the high-volume product for most people visiting Europe and Asia occasionally. West Coast and East Coast are the best regions in America for reaching these customers, of course.
I'm not sure how fast the data phones will click in USA - and the market for worldphones might be relatively limited. But together these features should appeal to the lucrative high-end customers most valuable to operators. Considering how overlooked Omnipoint and Voicestream have been it's hard to argue there isn't still upside here. Aerial loks like a potential next target. A tighter link to Orange and Hutchison would probably be a big bonus as well - it could be the kernel for the first truly global mobile operator with big stakes in entire continental USA, Europe and the key Chinese-speaking markets in Asia.
Tero |
