Hi Teflon! As you know the selloff in QWST is due to debt fears in connection w/ the takeover attempts (and debt becomes more burdensome when interest rates rise). Longer term, this is a non-issue IMO, because, should they fail to take over, you'll see an immediate bump in price. Should they succeed, again, longer-term this means the company is aggressively growing (hey, remember WCOM? Today WCOM cap is comparable to T, and who'd have thunk that?). But darn it, Teflon, why do you have to play options? Options are a shorter term instrument, and its harder to take advantage of "longer-term" perspective, should there be a more serious "wiggle" short-term. Still, on balance, I think a lot of the "interest rate/debt" fears have already been factored into the price. If in addition, we see a rally in July (once the FED nonsense at the end of June is over), which I think is likely, then I don't see why QWEST should tank from here. The only kink in all this is if the battle heats up - but I don't think GBLX has much of a desire to escalate. So, on balance, I think the odds are that this is the bottom, or close to it - of course we are hoping the market doesn't melt down completely between now and the Fed meeting.
Good luck!
Morgan |
