OK, truce - about the calls: the absolute truth is that I believe I bought two of them - the order was for 4-7/8 or better (so I was guessing on the price I got (my lie), but I still think the contracts traded below 4.5 at some point on 6/21, plus I believe they do trade on a couple of exchanges, I just haven't seen the confirmation sheet yet) and I did sell the put at 19-1/8, because it was the only contract out there that day and I put an order in at 18-1/2 or better, so if you tracked down the calls, then you would know I was telling the truth about the put.
I try like hell not to lie, but my tendency to brag about my trades got me into trouble, so from here forward, I have begun a personal policy of not bragging about my trading activity. If asked I will answer the question.
Not all my stocks are down today. Ashton (ASTN) is doing well and Advanced Fibre (AFCI), although down today a bit, was up nicely yesterday. Believe it or not, even Iomega is showing signs of life!
I think the bond market has over-reacted to the Fed. Now we are hearing from the pundits that there is nervousness about a full 50 basis point increase. WHAT?!?!?!?!?!? That is really out of line in my humble opinion. What I believe I heard Greenspan say was that a "modest" adjustment was in order, but, not a 1/2 point. Hence, at this moment, I would say that bonds are too far out in front of the Fed and we will see a pretty decent relief rally after the 29th. Up until then, fear prevails.
Earnings warnings and disappointing earnings are coming from the usual set of culprits and the well managed companies should probably meet or exceed expectations. The Earth is still round and the need for more bandwidth is ever present. Broadcom will probably exceed expectations and we will get the usual shot-to-the-moon after their announcement.
Given that, I don't really get nervous about losing the money on my long July 125 calls (RDZGE) or naked Aug 120 (RDZTD) position. If the put gets put to me, so be it, I am still ahead until the stock drops to about 102.5. Now tell me who I can buy BRCM from for 102.5 today? If I lose the money on the calls, well, too bad.
FWIW, that's my honest opinion. |
