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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks
NN 16.62-0.2%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (12021)6/24/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (2) of 18016
 
Z.O.,

Re the $1B LMDS:

I believe the numbers were:


Year  Sales Growth (YoY)
1999  100M   infinite
2000  300M   200%
2001  600M   100%


I would further note that Broadband Wireless will be 50% more than ATM WAN is today.

ATM WAN has been growing at 30% + a quarter for the past 2 quarters; and this is before LMDS enters the picture in any substantial way.

TEM will remain flat in the 120-165M range.

So if we add in ATM WAN at 50% YoY growth from the current run rate of 1.6B annually, we get:


      LMDS    LMDS        ATM   TDM
Year  Sales Growth (YoY)  WAN   Sales  Total
1999  100M   infinite     1600M 140M   1.8B
2000  300M   200%         2400M 140M   2.9B
2001  600M   100%         3600M 140M   4.3B


What do you think a price might be for NN with revenues of somewhere between $4 and 4.5B in 2001?

Just doodling,
Ian.
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