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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 165.13+1.1%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ruffian who wrote (33110)6/24/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: JohnG  Read Replies (3) of 152472
 
H&Q--I really distrust them in this matter. They have always been uniformly negative on QCOM. I believe I have seen positives on MOT from them despite MOT's screw ups. I just feel like their analyst has his own agenda here.

One can say broadly that competing with your customers is often not a good thing. Personally, I don't think this rational applies here. I am sure MOT, ERICY, NOK and others would like to see Q drop dead. In my opinion the reason is that there is a very good chance that Q's efforts in ASICS and innovative phones will outdistance them in the next 1 to 2 years. Q will have very capable phones as will the Koreans leaving ERICY and NOK and MOT debugging those phones running on homemade ASICS. Q will have 3G CDMA 2000 up and running starting this year. The W-CDMA folks will see their operating customers like NTT DOCOMO getting creamed my upstart wireless co's using CDMA ONE and 2000. Take NTT DoCoMO--it's something like Q2, 2001 B4 they hope to get W-CDMA up and running.

What we will have is a case where some large connected incumbent wireless operators stand to bleed big time. They know wireless customers are fickle and will switch for voice quality and lower cost.
Political action is their only weapon here and I am sure they are sharpening their knives.

No, Q shouldn't sell phone manufacturing. Instead, they should push toward CDMA 2000 at warp speed and help key wireless operators leave their competitors in the dust. Doing this may well result in forcing some wireless operators to adopt CDMA to remain in the game. Now is the time to press the advantage and not tolerate the competitor's slow movement toward W-CDMA. In hi Tech, fast cycle time is a deadly competative weapon. The first group w/ the new technology makes the big bucks and has a war chest to spend on the next generation of technology. I think we all know that CDMA 2000 is not the end of the evolution.

John G
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