Ravenue projection: Ian,you have to make few adjustment to your projection.
a) LMDS: US 1 billion (confired) not Can
100(147 Can) in FY2000, which ends April 2000,we are in Q1 2000 now
300(450 Can) in FY2001
600(900 Can) in FY 2002
In FY 1999(ended May 2,1999) ravenue in Can $ was:
Q1-Q4(including shippment constrains)
WAN:221,244,280,320 in Can $
TDM:184,195,150,137 in Can
Even in February Alan felt very comfortable with 15% sequential growth in WAN packet and 160-165 in TDM pre quarter.He was confortable with 2.4 billion Can in overall ravenue for current FY2000.
At that time it was based on business conditions only, which are getting better every month.LMDS was not factored.
During recent CC in June, he liked very much 2.2 billion for FY2000,of
course b/c supply-delivery and he can not effort to miss Q, even if
"someone will put the fire in NN factory!!!"
Since supply-delivery(two major factors are gone right now) problems a in general gone,and we can be more optimistic, and think in February CC terms.
TDM forcast in Can$ is still 160-165 average per Q, overall 650 Can for FY2000-current.
We should have 15% seq.growth for WAN from (320 Can in Q4 99) and we can add
US 100(147 Can) for FY00(current).
plus 650 Can in TDM
So 1840(WAN)+650(TDM)+147(LMDS)=2.6 Can in current FY2000(ends Apr,2000)
With improving condition in emerging markets 165pre quarter in TDM
looks OK,may be NN can do better.
Another thing, US 1 billion is based on 15 wins only .13 trials are in progress.I am not even talking about 30 customers in talks.
MaxLink, WinStar and Teligent all in USA are not decided yet.
In Q399(February cc) WinStar was on emerging carriears list!!!
If NN won so much business so far, and CSCO-Bosh and NT very little compare to NN, I am comfortable with NN's technology prospect for wining much more LMDS business.
Do not forget SSTI and new 350 access switch which can handle copper, fiber and wireless in "one box"(LMDS,xDSL,TV,video over copper, fiber), others need three boxes!!!
As for analysts models, they did not know about WIC and US 1 billion even week ago. So these No are not in their models yet.
Regards
Zbyslaw
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