It's gettin' late and my fingertips are flat your eyes are all hurtin', so it'll be brief...
Anyway, IMO, MAY (a BIGGG MAY!) have a small bounce up (believe it or not). Look at the way AXC has behaved on 3/6, 2/19, 1/29, and back on 12/16. Look back before 11/22, from 7/15 or so up to 11/22. Notice how cyclical the behavior was. It would hit a low then bounce back. Although the stock wasn't trending down in the fall -- it was in a "rectangle" as the blued-eyed TA's like to call it, the cyclicality is still there from the 12/23 Maxtor blast until now. There was over 3/4 point of volatility on high volume today. Either we will repeat the trend OR there will be a massacre (shortterm panic sell). Heads or tails: whose bettin'; whadda my bid???
Incidentally, the Zacks estimates for AXC as of 3/16 HAVE NOT BUDGED! Neither has the Moderate Buy recommendation. Something to keep in mind.
Finally, we've all wondered why has AXC behaved as it has since 1/6 or so? Of course, the hype and speculation over KM and following no-news, no-contract scene is probably a large part. But, check out April WORTH Magazine, pp 49,50. Article entitled "A Buying Panic" basically explains that only 7 out of the 50 largest equity funds beat the Street last year. Since money mgrs are beat up for poor performance, many are NOT making the mistake of avoiding these issues this year - regardless how pricey.
Well "worth" the reading. To quote: "Don't lose faith. Take the short-term pain. Though it's impossible to predict when, this cycle will turn, and fundamental values will again play an important role in ...the price of a stock." --- p. 50, Worth, 4/97.
RM |
