Chas, I certainly don't want to say that making money is easy, but I will say generally I think common sense goes a long way. Number one and foremost I've never shorted a share of MU, my idea of a short is a 20 point pullback. Shorting MU is a quick way to the poor house. You've seen the names come and go on SI over the last 3 years. Short interest with MU is one good indicator, currently 15 mil shares short a 62% increase over last month, and I suspect that it will increase dramatically over the next couple months, setting up a nice rally in the fall to Christmas.
Also, I never follow the analyst, they are completely self serving and generally wrong. (TK's a good example of that, if you listened to him last year with his 20 target,you probably missed a near 400% run up to 80). Seasonality is also a big part.
Also I just follow the trend, when MU is selling off and the volume starts drying up, that tells me that all the sellers are out,(like 2 or 3 days under 2 million shares) same on the upside. DRAM pricing, earnings, future potential and some other thing all enter into my decisions. Really when you look at what I've said most of it is just common sense, nothing particularly stands out, just basic principles.
No predictions but a sense a pullback to the low to mid 30's followed by a rally in the fall to who knows where?
Good Luck, Pat
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