Boys, boys (and girls) -- the prodigal son comes home to a dysfunctional family having a food fight? :o) I think there is plenty of room in the home for both optimism and skepticism, and the real facts won't be known until the drills stop turning and the feasibility studies are in the bank. Until then, there will be plenty of money to be made (perhaps both down and up) and, with a little luck, a company you can be proud of down the road!
Anyways, if anyone is interested (particularly the lurkers) I've got the following technical comments to make on MAN. A link to the relevant charts is at the bottom, though you will need to register for a free password to see them ... the site where I posted them tries to maintain a civil discussion and wants to have the liberty to yank someone off the board (as I understand happens every now and then even on SI!). If the charts have scrolled before you get their, the back messages are available. Anyone who can't figure it out can email me for help.
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At the end of April MAN broke out of a huge bottoming/consolidation triangle off the weekly charts and almost immediately tested the breakout. unlike the fake a couple of weeks earlier, this breakout held given the additional support of the 20 period ema. Concerted buying into the stock was evident by its slow creep upward based on support from the ema. Much of this buying could have been done with the excuse of trend following, as the ADX was high enough to invoke the Linda Raschke "Holy Grail" buy setup. Then, obviously, news of the Tambo Supreme Decree became public and the stock took off. It is now quite a bit above its 20 period ema where natural buying support would be found, but the internuts have shown us that stocks can remain levitated above ema support for some time. The bull flag that has formed in the last couple of days was a very healthy sign given that it occurred on decreasing volume. Today's candle, a bullish peircing line, suggests that the flag will break in the expected direction ... up.
Now for a look at the hourly chart.
For those wondering why the bull flag would just hang above support, the hourly chart tells the story. With recent trading volume up, MAN has become liquid enough to make a decent hourly chart. Hence, the pullback of the last couple of days has found support at the hourly 20 ema ... similar to what happened mid-month. The running triangle after that first consolidation foreshadowed the quick push from 5-6 canabuck -- this intraday pattern is typically found on these stocks that come into play after long periods of dormancy if they are going to have any lasting strength. Right now, the only real negative from a technical perspective is that the bull flag/triangle consolidation on the hourly
chart did not bounce smartly off the 20 period ema, thus giving the ADX a chance to fall below the magic number 30. I would expect the stock to continue up tomorrow, and would be very disturbed if it fell below the bottom of the consolidation triangle. If it does continue up, first test would be the recent high at the triangle apex .... its action there will speak volumes about where the stock is headed in the short-to-intermediate term.
Charts are posted to
intelligentspeculator.com |
