Frontier, Global Crossing, Qwest, U S West
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(FRO) 59.88 49.0 60.37 24.00 0.00 0.00
(GBLX) 45.94 0.0 64.25 8.00 0.06 0.13
(QWST) 33.06 0.0 52.37 11.00 0.50 1.54
(USW) 57.56 18.0 66.00 46.81 -0.44 -0.76
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 5:01PM
The jury is still out whether Global Crossing or Qwest Communications will win the battle for U S West and Frontier.
Either way, though, Qwest's stock is bound to recover ground, according to Danny Zito and Danny Wilson at Legg Mason Wood Walker. They upgraded the shares of Qwest to Outperform from Market Perform and slapped a 12-month price target of $40 on the stock. The news sparked the stock higher Thursday.
Qwest shares have tumbled around 27% since it launched a hostile bid for Frontier and U S West, which have already agreed to merge with upstart Global Crossing. On Wednesday, Qwest raised its bid to $47 billion from $43 billion. The analysts think that there's a chance that Global Crossing could return with a higher offer and keep the bidding war going.
At this point, Qwest's new bid improves its chances of winning U S West and Frontier, the analysts said. If Qwest succeeds, the shares are likely to move up as investors realize the benefits of the deal. "[The] acquisitions of USW and FRO would enhance QWST's strategic position and improve its ability to create long-term economic value through greater network utilization, a lower cost structure and access to a lower cost of capital," the analysts said. In turn, the additions of Frontier and U S West would enhance Qwest's attractiveness as a takeover target, they said.
If the bid fails, though, relieved investors will probably return to the stock and push it higher. Still, the analysts figure that until the battle is over, the shares are likely to be under the gun. KM
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CompUSA (CPU)
NEWS LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
7.69 0.0 21.75 5.56 -0.50 -6.11
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 4:01PM
Shares of the electronics retailer fell more than 6% Thursday after it said it would revamp its business strategy in hopes of boosting gross margins, reducing costs and improving customer service.
CompUSA's new initiatives, which include layoffs and the shuttering of many of its stores, will mean it will record $40 million to $50 million, or 43 to 54 cents a share, in after-tax, non-recurring charges. The bulk of the charges will be taken in the fourth quarter, which ends Saturday, with the remainder recorded in the first two quarters of next year. Analysts expect the company to report operating losses of 23 cents a share in the fourth quarter and three cents for the year.
Analyst George Sutton at Dain Rauscher Wessels said that the company has not given the Street any different earnings guidance yet and that the news wasn't very exciting. "The announcement was a little disappointing because there was nothing significant in it, in terms of major changes," Sutton says. "The bullish camp is looking for more changes."
CompUSA continues to suffer as more consumers buy PCs directly from PC makers such as Dell Computer and Gateway. In an attempt to increase gross margins, CompUSA said it will update its superstore concept to respond to the rapid changes in the industry. For example, the company is testing individually staffed custom PC centers in the stores that highlight specific build-to-order products. Interestingly enough, Gateway has already done this with its Country stores where customers can test drive a PC before ordering one direct.
CompUSA also said it will shift its merchandise to focus on hand-held technology products, PC and console games like Sony, Nintendo and Sega, interactive toys, digital products such as DVD movies and equipment like digital cameras and camcorders. "These changes will allow us to reduce our dependence on low-margin desktop personal computers while maintaining our position as a technology leader," the company said in a press release.
To reduce operating costs, CompUSA also plans to consolidate its shipments for its direct-sales customers, changing to a single-source distribution model. Now, business, government and education customers receive their shipments from stores and other distribution centers. It will also select a distribution partner for its direct-sales product fulfillment. The company also expects to cut 1,000 to 1,500 jobs and streamline its training services. It will also close four stores in the near future. Another five to 10 under-performing locations could be closed as well.
Sutton said that the company could have opted to close more than four stores. "Our guess would be there are more unprofitable stores than that," he says.
Rumors recently re-emerged that CompUSA could be acquired by Staples (SPLS). The June 21 issue of Business Week quotes a money manager who pegged CompUSA as being worth $16 a share in a buyout. Such rumors have bounced around for several months now. While an acquisition is always a possibility, Sutton says he hasn't heard any firm plans yet. Still, this company's announcement Thursday could be viewed as a sign that the company aims to tough it out alone. MR
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Internet
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(CMGI) 96.50 0.0 165.00 8.62 -2.44 -2.47
(CNET) 49.94 0.0 79.75 7.25 -2.63 -5.00
(DCLK) 81.69 0.0 176.00 6.75 -3.25 -3.83
(EBAY) 142.13 0.0 234.00 8.43 -4.31 -2.94
(GNET) 139.38 0.0 199.00 6.50 -6.63 -4.54
(SEEK) 46.19 0.0 100.00 14.87 -1.06 -2.24
(LCOS) 95.44 0.0 145.37 20.06 1.94 2.07
(PCLN) 102.00 0.0 165.00 58.00 -8.88 -8.01
(TGLO) 17.63 0.0 48.50 12.68 1.63 10.19
(YHOO) 151.00 0.0 244.00 29.50 -4.50 -2.89
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 4:01PM
It was a mixed day for e-stocks, as inflation fears deflated some stocks, while praise and acquisition rumors boosted others.
TheGlobe.com turned higher on praise from All-Star Analyst Alan Braverman of Banc of America Securities. Shares of the online community have been in the dark since hitting a new low on June 15. But on Thursday, the stock surged on unusually heavy volume after Braverman suggested that the recent selloff is a good buying opportunity. In a quarterly earnings preview, Braverman said he was comfortable with his estimate of a loss of 33 cents a share for the second quarter, which ends next week. He also reiterated his Buy rating on the stock.
After shedding 13% in the last two days, shares of DoubleClick continued to stumble. The stock was tripped up by speculation that it could lose AltaVista's business, which accounts for 46% of its revenue. Bullish analysts at CE Unterberg Towbin and Pacific Crest Securities (who both have Strong Buy ratings on the stock) rushed to DoubleClick's defense Thursday, to no avail. CS
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Covance, Parexel International
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(CVD) 21.56 22.0 32.87 19.43 1.75 8.83
(PRXL) 16.94 25.0 45.50 15.43 -4.56 -21.21
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 4:03PM
Shares of the contract medical research companies went their separate ways on rumors that their $800 million merger could fall apart.
A few analysts reportedly speculate that Parexel's earnings may not be up to par with Covance's expectations. Back in October, Parexel told analysts to lower their 1999 earnings forecasts because its clinical trial business was slowing down. Other analysts thought that there may be some regulatory hurdles to overcome.
Based on their current price, Parexel's shares trade at a 32% discount to Covance's takeover bid announced in April. Covance offered to exchange 1.184 of its shares, representing a takeover bid for Parexel of $25.086 a share. KM
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Omnipoint, VoiceStream Wireless
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(OMPT) 28.75 0.0 29.75 4.62 7.94 38.15
(VSTR) 28.50 0.0 34.25 16.37 -1.00 -3.39
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 4:01PM
Omnipoint shares leapt as much as 42% Thursday after VoiceStream Wireless agreed to buy its smaller wireless rival for about $1.7 billion. The combined company, which will be one of the world's largest licensees employing the GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) standard, will provide cellular phone services to about 175 million customers in 17 of the nation's top 25 markets.
After the bell Wednesday, VoiceStream said it will exchange 0.825 of its shares and $8 in cash for each share of Omnipoint. The deal values each Omnipoint share at $32.33, which represents a 55% premium to Omnipoint's closing price Wednesday. VoiceStream will also invest $150 million in Omnipoint before the merger is closed.
Analysts who were bullish about VoiceStream are even more delighted about the merged entity. Eric Weinstein at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette upped his rating on VoiceStream shares to Top Pick from Buy, while Salomon Smith Barney analyst Thomas Lee reiterated his Buy rating.
"This is the first step to a nationwide GSM operating company...by consolidating the GSM carriers, we believe VoiceStream can create value," said Christopher Larsen at Prudential Securities, who reiterated his Strong Buy rating on the news. Hearty subscriber growth, new licenses and a strong management team are just a few of the catalysts generating excitement about VoiceStream, adds the analyst.
But VoiceStream is vulnerable to the risks inherent to all wireless companies, cautions Larsen. Wireless competition could drive down prices, and regulatory rulings could adversely impact its business. As a startup, VoiceStream will also require more capital to build out its networks. RT
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CyberSource (CYBS), QuePasa!com (PASA), Software.com (SWCM)
Three more Internet IPOs grabbed investors' attention, but didn't come close to Wednesday's gain in the IPO of Ariba (ARBA), whose shares quadrupled from their offering price.
Software.com, maker of Internet messaging software, opened at 22 5/8, but fell on heavy trading to close at 18 1/16 -- just 20% above above its offering price. The IPO's lead underwriter, Credit Suisse First Boston, priced its 6 million share offering (a 15% stake) at $15 -- well above its anticipated range of $10 to $12. Customers for Software.com's email system include AT&T WorldNet (a subsidiary of AT&T (T)), Excite At Home (ATHM), RoadRunner and PSINet (PSIX). Last year the company lost $7.4 million on revenue of $25.6 million. AT&T Ventures and Hewlett-Packard (HWP) are minority investors.
Beyond.com (BYND) spun off its e-commerce processing business, CyberSource, and investors rushed in. CyberSource shares hit a high of 18 in early trading before closing at 13 9/16 -- only 23% above their offering price. CyberSource floated 4 million shares (a 19% stake), priced at $11 a pop. Lead manager Merrill Lynch priced the new shares above their anticipated range of $8 to $10. CyberSource processes payments, figures taxes and prevents fraud for e-commerce companies. Clients include Compaq Computer (CPQ) and Egghead.com (EGGS). Last year the company lost $10 million on revenue of $3.4 million.
QuePasa!com brought in the biggest gain today. The Spanish-language portal priced its 4 million share offering (a 29% stake) at $12 each, the top of its anticipated range. In trading, shares climbed as high as 21 3/8 before closing at 17 1/8 -- up 43% overall. Aiming at the U.S. Hispanic market, QuePasa!com faces competition from StarMedia (STRM), which is the dominant Latin American portal. Last year the company lost $6.5 million on no significant revenue. In its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, QuePasa!com says it is still in the development phase, but plans to earn revenue through advertising and hosting e-commerce vendors. CS
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PCs
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(AAPL) 42.31 16.0 50.00 27.31 -1.38 -3.16
(CPQ) 22.69 55.0 51.25 20.00 -0.75 -3.20
(DELL) 38.13 50.0 55.00 20.37 -0.19 -0.50
(GTW) 62.63 23.0 84.50 36.12 -2.00 -3.09
(HWP) 90.88 25.0 97.56 47.06 -2.06 -2.22
(IBM) 122.56 32.0 127.75 55.00 -0.38 -0.31
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 4:01PM
Compaq Computer confirmed Thursday that it's in talks to sell a controlling interest in its AltaVista Internet search engine to Internet fund company CMGI (CMGI). Rumors about a possible $2 billion to $3 billion stock deal started swirling around the Street earlier in the week. (See story.) Compaq said its discussions include creating a strategic relationship between itself and CMGI to advance its Internet strategy.
"The discussions are in a preliminary stage and there can be no assurance that a transaction will be consummated," the PC maker said in a press release. "Compaq does not plan to make any further public announcements with respect to this possible transaction unless and until a definitive agreement is reached."
Analysts are mixed on whether a deal will actually occur. ING Baring Furman Selz analyst Robert Cihra says he thinks it's fairly likely Compaq will sell a majority stake in AltaVista to CMGI, and that it's a positive move for the PC maker. First, he explains, the type of valuation being bandied about is the amount Compaq was hoping to raise in an IPO of the Internet search engine. Another benefit is that Compaq would be able to remove the operating expenses associated with AltaVista off its books.
SG Cowen Securities analyst Richard Chu says he expects to hear something definitive in the next several days regarding the deal, but he's still unsure whether it will go through. "I think there are a lot of questions and not a lot of answers right now," he says.
Salomon Smith Barney's Richard Gardner agrees. The analyst said in a note Thursday that a $2 billion to $3 billion deal between Compaq and CMGI seemed unlikely, "given that CMGI is essentially a venture capital company and not an operating company." Nevertheless, he spun out the financial implications should such a deal happen. First, he said the price tag -- which amounts to about 25 times estimated 1999 revenue of $100 million -- seems reasonable for AltaVista. This only boils down to $1 to $2 a share for Compaq. Still, in terms of earnings per share impact, selling all of AltaVista would remove $90 million in goodwill amortization and perhaps up to $10 million in operating losses per quarter, Gardner said.
"A sale to CMGI would contradict most statements by Compaq management to date regarding their plans for AltaVista," Gardner said. The PC maker reiterated at its annual shareholder meeting in April that it planned to take AltaVista public before the end of the year, and keep a majority stake, the analyst explained. "The most compelling rationale for a change in this strategy is management's realization of the significant investments in branding required during the coming 12 to 24 months in order for AltaVista to compete effectively with well-entrenched competitors like Yahoo and Amazon.com."
In other news, CIBC World Markets cut its rating on Gateway to Underperform from Hold. Rumors that the PC maker is looking to acquire ISP Earthlink Networks (ELNK) are still alive. The company has said it is trying to branch out from its core PC business. MR
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Tobacco
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(BTI) 18.81 23.0 22.25 15.00 -0.69 -3.54
(MO) 40.50 12.0 59.50 33.06 -1.81 -4.28
(RJR) 31.81 0.0 34.00 30.37 0.19 0.60
(UST) 31.06 11.0 35.62 25.25 0.00 0.00
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 3:59PM
The landmark multibillion-dollar lawsuit known as the Engle case is expected to go to the jury on Monday, with closing arguments likely to wrap up Friday. This latest litigation against tobacco companies is significant because it's the first class action lawsuit (filed by Florida residents) to go to trial. And onlookers say tobacco companies may have to pay up. The plaintiffs are seeking $200 billion to $500 billion from tobacco companies on the grounds that they allegedly conspired to hide the fact that smoking is harmful to one's health.
James Brucculeri at Merrill Lynch delivered some good news and some bad news to tobacco investors in a litigation update Thursday. "Based on a reading of the jury instructions, we believe that it is likely that the jury will rule in favor of the plaintiffs in Phase I," said Brucculeri. "However, we believe the market has already discounted this possibility." Merrill continues to recommend shares of Philip Morris and R.J. Reynolds with Accumulate ratings on each. CS
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Drugs
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(AZN) 40.06 32.0 48.93 31.00 -0.13 -0.32
(BRL) 37.88 19.0 49.75 24.62 0.88 2.38
(GLX) 55.13 30.0 76.18 49.37 -0.25 -0.45
(LLY) 66.94 28.0 97.75 62.56 1.75 2.68
(MRK) 68.94 27.0 87.37 57.50 1.06 1.56
(NRGN) 14.75 0.0 18.75 9.93 0.00 0.00
(PFE) 101.38 40.0 150.12 86.00 2.69 2.73
(PNU) 54.63 30.0 66.37 40.43 -1.06 -1.90
(SBH) 65.63 36.0 76.37 48.06 -0.75 -1.13
(SGP) 48.50 34.0 60.81 42.37 1.25 2.65
(WLA) 62.44 33.0 85.93 60.12 -0.56 -0.89
(WPI) 40.06 23.0 63.00 35.50 -0.13 -0.32
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 4:02PM
On a day chock full of bleak earnings forecasts, drug stocks were mixed.
The maker of allergy drug Claritin gave investors a breath of fresh air. Schering-Plough said it expects to report earnings for the second quarter and for all of 1999 that are on target with analysts expectations. The company said it should earn "at least" 36 cents a share, which is the consensus estimate for the quarter that ends Wednesday.
"For the full year, we expect the increase in Schering-Plough's 1999 earnings per share to approach 20%, which would give us our 14th consecutive year of double-digit growth in earnings per share," the company said in a press release.
Last year, Schering-Plough sold $2.3 billion worth of Claritin, the leading prescription allergy medication and the company's star product. This hay fever season, Claritin cornered 53% of the market, and according to the company, "is on track for a strong performance this year." CS
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Banks
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(AIB) 27.00 5.0 41.62 23.00 -0.69 -2.49
(BKB) 47.81 15.0 59.06 25.75 -1.38 -2.81
(FLT) 41.31 15.0 46.81 30.00 -1.38 -3.23
(ONE) 54.69 14.0 63.56 36.06 -3.00 -5.20
(CBH) 40.50 19.0 50.50 31.62 -0.31 -0.76
(BEN) 36.75 21.0 54.87 25.75 -1.50 -3.92
(FSR) 26.25 21.0 35.31 18.06 -0.56 -2.09
(FVB) 48.75 18.0 59.00 39.68 -1.25 -2.50
(SUB) 40.63 14.0 49.43 30.75 -0.75 -1.81
(WFC) 41.88 19.0 44.87 27.50 -0.50 -1.18
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 3:54PM
Financial stocks continued to get whacked by fears about higher interest rates. Already, the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose to 6.14% from 6.133% Wednesday. Last Friday, the yield was at 5.97%. The countdown is on for the highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Otherwise, a few analysts cheered news that SmartMoney pick Bank One launched a second Web site called wingspanbank.com. A spokesman for the bank said the new site will be "complementary and competing" with their old site, bankone.com, and be operated by its credit card company, First USA. Both sites offer investing, checking, loan applications and other banking services.
Fox-Pitt, Kelton, Inc. analyst Michael Granger said the bank's new Web site was expected, and that was part of the reason he has a Buy recommendation on the stock. "They have been the most aggressive in pursuit of an Internet strategy, as far as major banks are concerned," Granger says. Granger pointed to the success of the first Web site, as well as advances in their retail and credit card business department as other pluses.
Merrill Lynch analyst Sandra Flannigan reiterated her Accumulate rating on Bank One. Costs for the site might prompt her to trim her earnings estimates for this year and next, she said, but not enough to severely impact the stock rating or price objectives.
"Indeed, if the First USA management is as successful in building a low-cost branchless bank as they were in building a low-cost moneyline card business, the longer term financial implications are very upbeat," Flanningan said in a report. MG
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Home builders
SYM LAST PRICE P/E 52-WK HI 52-WK LO NET CHG. % CHG.
(CMH) 11.25 11.0 16.50 10.43 -0.25 -2.17
(DHI) 16.06 8.0 24.93 10.62 -0.44 -2.67
(LEN) 22.75 8.0 34.37 14.87 -0.06 -0.26
(OH) 12.13 10.0 32.18 10.87 -0.25 -2.02
(TOL) 21.13 8.0 30.50 17.37 -0.63 -2.90
Quote As Of 1999/6/24 4:01PM
Interest rate worries continued to hammer most home building stocks. Shares of Lennar bucked the trend most of the day as investors digested its strong second-quarter earnings report issued Tuesday, but ended slightly lower. The home builder earned 63 cents a share, beating the consensus expectation by a penny, compared to a year ago when it earned 47 cents a share. Revenue was $738.4 million. Lennar's average home price was up 12.2% to $218,682, reflecting more home construction in California's higher-price market. New orders expanded 9.4% to 3,632, despite 7.5% fewer selling communities.
Merrill Lynch analyst Robert Curran called it "another stand-out quarter" and said he expects the good times to continue for Lennar. "We anticipate substantial earnings gains this year and in fiscal year 2000," he wrote in a report. "We believe that Lennar is positioned to realize a 16% to 17% increase in deliveries, moderately higher gross profit margins and sharply improved profits in fiscal year 1999."
The analyst noted that the stock is surely not reflecting its projected growth. In fact, he said Lennar shares are selling at a steep discount to the market multiple and should be trading "at least at 40% to 45% of the 1999 market multiple." The analyst has a 12-month $32 price target and Buy rating on the stock. MR
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