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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 681.44

+1.6%

Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18526)	6/25/1999 5:43:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Heinz: My statement about what I see is based on market internals, the chart I gave, and a few other things. I do not consider any of the moving averages. The TRAN could end up in a head and shoulders with a little more development. There are many key indexes in trouble. I posted that the IIX, under Dow Theory, had ended its up-move. The DOT can be thrown into the same category. However, both formed distinct symmetrical triangles. Using the Nasdaq volume, the volume declined during their formation. So I consider them valid. The IIX and the DOT triangles must cross at their apex to negate their current bear market. Those numbers are at 325 on the IIX and 635 or 640 on the DOT. The other difficulty is the SPX. It went to the midpoint of its recent resistance earlier this week and broke down and started dropping. For that matter, the IIX and the DOT did nearly the same thing. The only way these problems can be turned around is with increased volume on the upside. This is not a few shares either. It must be 130 million shares in the first half-hour of trading. Currently we are around 90 million. In the fake breakout of last week it was 115 million. 130 million must be acheived. An 825 million share day on the NYSE also must be achieved to validate the first half-hour. Last week after the initial 115 million share half-hour the voilume died--so did any chances of a long-lasting rally. Today could be an awful day too. These things are not precise but I cannot ignore them. They work. The key and only thing that can validate what I said is volume on the upside. That volume must be present without any qualifications.

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