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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 113.22

+1.9%

Jan 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: Mohan Marette who wrote (134504)	6/25/1999 8:42:00 AM
From: JH	Read Replies (1) of 176387

<Goldman's Cohen Says Bull Market in U.S. Stocks Intact, Earnings Strong... Cohen's year-end forecast for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is 1325, and a year from now she expects the benchmark index to reach 1385. The index yesterday closed at 1316> Huh? What bull market? The move from 1316 to 1385 is only 5.2% !! The SPX's annualized 100 day volatility is 51.2%, and the annualized 180 day volatility is 47.7%... I don't think that a 10.7% reward ((1.052% ^2) minus 1.00) is adequate to justify a risk which is nearly five times higher ! I believe that investors should demand a equity risk premium of at least 15% to be invested in this market. Combined with the risk free rate of 6%, the required rate of return should be around 21%. What Abby is REALLY saying is that those who will be satisfied with a 10.7% annualized return for the next six month period should be IN the market. Otherwise, you should be invested in short-term treasurys. I'd say "no thanks" to the S&P500...

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