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Technology Stocks : SOFTKEY=MERGER MANIA

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To: Machaon who wrote (942)	3/20/1997 12:18:00 AM
From: Thomas C. Donald	of 966

Ideas about future sales and earnings ... Current trends and estimates for TLC's annual earnings are approximately 25% of its stock price. Most people would already consider this to be "gang-buster earnings". Increasing earnings would be nice, but the problem seems to be more in the area of investors not believing that the current level of annual earnings will continue, even though that is what analysts predict. What is the basis for the argument that TLC's earnings will fall? Since quarterly reports and marketing plans don't support this conjecture, I presume that it must have something to do with PC Data statistics. I don't have access to PC Data reports. Does anyone know precisely what they say that is supposed to be so damning for TLC? The International Data Corporation report cited in message #911 says that consumer sales will "continue to grow steadily during 1997". TLC has, itself, reported sales (cited in message #909) of 40.7, 46.5, 58.8, 67.5 million dollars for the sum of retail and direct channels (which compete with each other) for the four quarters of 1996. What's the problem? Additional sources of revenues will be nice, but they certainly should not be necessary to get this stock back to a reasonable price.

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