Re: Advanced Fibre Communications(AFCI) and DLCs
DenverTechie and Thread,
Thanks for the explanation.
While doing some DD on AFCI I discovered something interesting. It appears that AFCI has stumbled along for most of 1998 and this resulted in ousting their CEO in June of 98. Well they've been looking for a CEO since. It turns out they got him, John Schofield, from ADC Telecom(ADCT). Schofield was a VP over at ADCT. Schofield then apparently recruited another executive, Robert Yates, from ADCT too.
It's an interesting combo because between the two of them, their is a lot of experience they both bring in working with the RBOC, CAP, IXC, CLEC, both domestic and international. It may be just what AFCI needs?
The reason this surprises me, is when you go to AFCI's website, their is a very (IMHO) unimpressive 20 minute video of Schofield, talking about plans for AFCI. I was very unimpressed because I don't believe, during the entire 20 minutes, he mentioned what AFCI even makes? And it's not to complicated because AFCI is a one-trick pony, the UMC1000. To be honest, I thought he was from outside the industry and was just doing a canned presentation for a business class. So when I read about his background it really shocked me. So I don't get it?
Is AFCI going to be able to turn things around? Their big excuse for all of 1998 and Q1 of 99, was international markets tanked for them. Before 98's problems, they sold 30% overseas. Well that appears to be a good excuse to me. I'm trying to do some more DD to see how much exposure they have in Asia. There is little doubt Asia is recovering. European markets may still be tough to sell into though.
Then there is that questions of DLC's in particular. I still can't figure out if that is a growth industry or not? I read that 20% of telephone customers are currently accessed via a DLC. That seems like a lot to me already. Is there really that much growth left? Maybe the real growth is overseas markets?
Or as Bernard mentioned upstream, DLC's are necessary for DSL deployments(that's what got me started on AFCI). And I still can't figure this one out. From what I understand a DLC brings the CO fiber closer to the customer, hence ADSL flavors and higher. But if DSL Lite (G.lite) catches on, is there a great need for more DLCs? Or are DLCs needed no matter what, for DSL deployments?
I can't quite figure out what is going to drive DLC sales? And I am especially concerned they have lots of competition that may make a better product.
Well that's where my entire DD stands on AFCI. Kind of floundering around trying to figure them out. If anyone can throw out some more thoughts, it would be appreciated.
Thanks,
MikeM(From Florida) |
