Tom, here are some comments that Peter Eliades made today on a Longwaves forum that I participate in :
I didn't think my post left too much to the imagination, but thanks for
making it sound more mystical than it was. The May and June highs of what? It
should be fairly clear by now (although I learned long ago there are no
certitudes in life, much less in the stock market) that the daily
advance-decline line saw its high for this bull market in April 1998, and while
my very rare "Sign of the Bear" signal in mid May does not promise an immediate
final high, its history suggests the top is in because in 6 of the 9 prior
cases (over the past 70 years), the final high is seen within 38 calendar days
of the last churning day, which we have now surpassed. The bubbly is chilled
(Sonoma County's fabulous Schramsberg, perhaps the finest our country offers),
but I take no delight in seeing it happen, if it has. It will not be a pretty
time for any of us.
As to the Coppock Curve, it is hard to imagine a long term momentum
indicator giving a clearer signal than the one we are seeing now, but I've
never seen a technical indicator that came with a written guarantee. My current
use of it has nothing to do with the Stack work you are referring to (which, by
the way, he got from and attributed to me) . Yes, I promise you you will be one
(bear) again, but I can almost guarantee you and Dan and Abbie and Ralph that
the bear market will start without your initial imprimatur. That's just the way
markets work. Could it go on another year? You betcha! As I noted in an earlier
post, my buddy PQ thinks it will and his timing has been quite good for the
past few years. All I can do is follow the damn signs in the road, and right
now there are a lot of Danger! signs out there. I plan to follow them for now.
Peter Eliades
Stockmarket Cycles |
