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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6269)6/25/1999 2:06:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (3) of 15132
 
MrGreenJeans re<<<<<<<<<<Let us also remember Bob missed the 1987 "correction"...for the record it was a crash at my house...and his new timing model has yet to be tested during bear periods.>>>>>>>>

It is interesting that while I was not significantly invested and not listening to Bob in 1987 my knowledge of his missing the crash, bear market, correction, aberration or whatever has probably cost me far more than if I had been invested and following Bob then. The reason is because it left me with substantial doubts about Bob's prediction abilities and caused me to be way overcautious and in fact to sell out at one point to a completely ridiculous sell signal by a guru I was using as a back up in case Bob missed a bear and this other guru caught it. Like most I became amazed and totally respectful of Bob's ability to call the market over the last many years. When you have mentioned it I noted you are usually at a pretty high equity allocation from which you have assumedly reaped the rewards and a bit of caution seems reasonable. As for myself even after closing out my hedge I'm probably around 70-30 or 2/3-1/3 both because of the change in market conditions and I have been gradually positioning myself to be able to quickly make a fast move to bear market status should that arise.
As to your point about Bob's model if we say his assumed new and improved model has possibly not been adequately tested for bear market calls since it's never made one, that is an obvious statistical fact that can not be ignored. If his model as adjusted in 1988 has never prospectively made a bear market call and there has been no bear market it is hard to have any sensitivity or specificity data. While back testing is important, without having had a few bear markets in the last 10 years we lack the fresh data that would be helpful in evaluating the model. The model is not however some ethereal concept floating in the universe but is backed by one man in whom you either place confidence or not. In many years you have profited from this man's advice and gotten perhaps somewhat burnt once, myself I have profited and learned greatly and only got burnt when I doubted my disciple so I guess I will follow Brinker either to fortunes beyond my wildest dreams(or at least perhaps critical mass at some point) or over a cliff like the other lemmings as the disgruntled skeptics might like to say

Marc
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