The heavy lumber is going to be applied to the bulls next week. Bulls had every chance to apply the knock out punch to the Bears today; resiliency of Bears to get off the canvas and fight back all the way into the bell portends the breakdown next week. Look at TRAN: finished -10 to 3,316 at the low of the day after being positive for most of the day. I mentioned full well two closes below 3,350 is warning shot in MITA 186 on Wednesday 6/23:
I AM ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT BKX, DOW, UTIL, AND TRAN. IF THE
TRAN CLOSES BELOW 3,350 TODAY AND WE GET ANOTHER CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL TOMORROW, IT IS CLEAR WARNING SHOT FOR ME ACROSS THE BOW.
UTIL: finished near the low of the day down 2.75 to finish at 322 and clear break. I mentioned immediate attention to UTS and said this was early barometer of market direction change in MITA 180; Furthermore, a single close below 324 is another piece of evidence for the bear locomotive about to speed into town with little warning in MITA 189:
<***PLEASE NOTE***Several Points: 1) In "The Majors Group": I am
keeping extremely close watch on supports DOW 10,530; SPX 1,302; OEX
660; TRAN 3,350; UTS 324; VIX 25.5. I will not tolerate any margin
for error at this stage in the market. If we get running close prior
to bell where the majority of these supports are seemingly about to
get taken out, I will not wait for that coveted second close below
these levels. Reason is because confluence of tight supports taken
out for me is overwhelming evidence in a change in market sentiment.
We are at dangerous levels that need to hold from May 13 highs. We
have now marked Trading DAY # 28 from May 13 highs and if we break
supports it will be right in here next few trading days as it took
exactly 38 Trading Days for that fateful '87 collapse. Just need to
keep eyes wide open for any potentiality.>
DOW, SPX and OEX should close in on these aforementioned support levels above no later than Weds close next week, IMHO. Monday is very probable event of close below 10,530, 1,302 and 660. I add IIX 280 as critical support. I will focus on NDX, COMP and the others by Sunday night.
DOW 10,595 was repelled several times today including last fatal attempt with 5 minutes to go prior to the bell. We were up 55 to 10,590 DOW after bouncing off of +5 with 20 to 30 min to go; I was on the phone with clients and next time I look at screen it shows a close of paltry +17 to 10,552.5.
All in all, it can not be considered a very comforting close for the bulls.
Don't know if I'll be able to post the closing numbers til Sunday night or not. Have a great weekend.
Best, J.T. |
