Well I just finished wading through all, yes, ALL the posts on the Yahoo message board. Sorting through the shorts, trash, etc., my impression is that the negatives were explained by a FEW good posters to my satisfaction, and these were mostly done around $15, before the big fall and the tremendous increase in posters, where there is less information. If true, that funds owned 90-95% of the stock it is possible that this drop is due to funds fighting to get out for window dressing at quarters end, after having driven the price up by buying into the stock causing a momentum play along the way, and a premature value or stock price getting ahead of reality.
I have seen this before. It seems the panic has to do with Congress changing Medicare rules, but the company claims to have factored this into reduced revenue and is creating efficiencies from acquisitions and internal automation. Claims that the company is on the up and up appeared in detail. I always worry about this 'hidden' factor and noted no posting referencing any slight of hand (no guarantee, but good news on risk/reward scale, even one hint worries me).
So what else, probably rapid growth is over, competition is a concern, Congress might back off (it should leave the old ones alone IMHO). NOW the rumor, which I did not personally verify through following posted links. The company will release a press report this Wednesday at quarters end. What will it say, guess is some writedown as the change in COO is due to a falling off in collectibles, 90 days overdue.
They did the COO replacement smoothly enough, without a blip, and this has been going on for a month, the drop in share price and none of the usual lawsuits, which seems strange coming from the tech sector where these happen at the drop of a hat. I thought the stock was worth taking a position on Friday and expect a drop due to profit taking, fear of the press release. This after noting it seemed to hold pretty well Friday since all this information was on the street.
Best case is we hold above 5 1/2 going into the release and the writedown or whatever makes the stock still look like the value here is $15, and the company shows itself to be well managed (and no book cooking, and I found not even a hint anywhere of this possibility).
The kicker is if the fears on SS are buried by Congress in the coming weeks. I am not up on this but feel this is possible, so bottom line remains intact and growth projections remain, reduced, but intact. Some strategic information on the companies direction would also be nice in the release. This is all about risk, in these situations if you find a pure play by honest but greedy company that has been honest and straight with the numbers to analysts and fund managers you find the little guy feeding frenzy, the shorts, and everything else, as illustrated by the huge increase in Yahoo message board activity in last few weeks, as the stock went to exhaustion at 4 7/8.
I missed this 'bottom', partly due to the slow decline and non tech play.
Any additional information, "like get out now before the really bad news", would be appreciated coming from a fellow SIer, but not to be trusted on Yahoo. |
