Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: Art Vandelay AIA who wrote (3364)	6/26/1999 11:35:00 PM
From: Art Vandelay AIA	Read Replies (1) of 10280

A few more weekend thoughts. As I step back and review what has transpired I focus on the following issue. Can SEPR patent and develop materially improved drugs that will compete effectively with generics. The first question regarding patent is easily answered. SEPR has issued many patents on their compounds that have been unofficially verified through partner relationships. The second question is a little more difficult. For this discussion I will assume that we rank some of the more known sepre ICE's on a scale of 1 - 5 with 5 being the highest and a two implying that the sepr ICE is equal to the originator product. Keep in mind that some of the products will be clinical failures and some will be failures due to new drug discoveries by competitiors. A) Allegra versus Seldane. Clearly the ICE is superior. I rate it a 4. In 1999 or 2000 Allegra will actually exceed the peak sales for Seldane. If not for the PTO patent issue this would clearly be a grand slam. If every drug was this solid we would be rich by now. B) XOPENEX versus Albuterol. Clearly the ICE has the potential to be superior. I rate it a 3. Clinically XOPENEX is slightly superior, but may not warrant the increased price, yet. Certainly it is not inferior. The combination of lower dosage, lower side effects and potential for no decrease in FEV 1 still make it a potential biggie. Even with its current clinical data it should have immediate appeal to some groups including hospitals and children with hyperactivity. If no reduction in FEV is proven it will become a 5 and carry SEPR on its shoulders to new highs. If not it still could be a $100 MM plus product. Bottom line is clealy improved with upside still to be determined. c) DCL versus Claritin. While we have no specific information I still would rate this a 4. My reasons are as follows: This will mark the fastes execution of a drug from Clinical to NDA in FDA history. It is likely that the drug is materially improved based on SGP eagerness to get it to market. d) R Flux versus Prozac. Again no specific information, but LLY apaprently spoke highly of it at their last meeting with analyst. Also, they paid a steep price approaching a 18% royalty rate. My guess is that it merits a 4. e) Nori versus Hismanal. IMO this is a 4. It is clearly superior to Hismanal in side effect and efficacy. How will it rank versus the three competitors we don't know yet. I would point out that if it is inferior to Zyrtec, which I believe i the number two product, Zyrtec ICE will be along to correct that problem. To be continued

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