Nice posts from LOR yahoo thread. G* $15/share profit and $480/share potential
[It's okay to dream every once in a while...]
Top>Business and Finance>Stocks>Services>Communications Services>LOR (Loral
Space/Communication)
Pharm, 15$ per share
by: RcktScntst2
16330 of 16346
is probably G*'s ultimate net income potential for the first generation system. Mgmt says it has 10B
minutes capacity to sell, suppose they go at 0.50$/minute, that's 5B$ revenue. Subtract about 1B$ for
operating expenses, interest and depreciation, leaves 4B$ divide by 250M shares=16$/sh.
But it will take longer than a year to get there. 10B minutes represents about 7M users, and the initial
build rate of user terminals is only 0.5M/year. That will accelerate no doubt, assuming demand is there,
but not instantly. I believe the company has said it expects 3M users by the end of 2002.
The CS 1st Boston earnings estimate for G* posted on SI Loral thread post 5567 predict 14.5$/ share
by 2005 and increasing thereafter (with 2nd generation constellation), FWIW.
Loral will get 40+% of G*s net plus a management fee that is a couple percent of revenues, I believe. So
if G* is making 4B$, Loral will get 1.6B$+ or about 5$ per Loral share.
Regards,
RS
Posted: 06/26/1999 02:42 pm EDT as a reply to: Msg 16318 by Pharmacon2000
_________________________
Top>Business and Finance>Stocks>Services>Communications Services>LOR (Loral
Space/Communication)
RcktScntst2, $500 / share LOR
by: GainsRus (39/M)
16334 of 16346
Your earnings numbers are consistent with what I've seen in other analysis. This is the great news about
G* and LOR. Using your numbers of 16.00 / shr earnings for G*, and a P/E multiple of 30, (which
seems about right for today's forward looking high tech. shares), we could expect G* share price of
$480 a share!!!
OK, so that's "best case", but the point is made. Now looking at Loral, the G* ownership earnings you
cite of $ 5.00 per share added to Loral's other holdings, again using P/E 30 gives us an added $150 /
share, tacked onto Loral's very substantial earnings from all the other programs it's putting in place. When
we add in Loral ownership stake of Cyberstar, Europestar, CD radio, Skybridge, Satmex, Skynet, and
the Telstar birds, and then the nicely profiable and successful Space Systems Loral manufacturing
division, (not to mention all the minor programs like Mubuhay) we have HUGE share price potential,
yes?
Perhaps $500 to $600 /share before any splits, if these programs proceed as planned, by 2003 or so.
Where else can we look today in high tech for this kind of solid growth potential?
Posted: 06/26/1999 06:08 pm EDT as a reply to: Msg 16330 by RcktScntst2 |
