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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 261.90

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Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (31178)	6/27/1999 5:07:00 PM
From: Demosthenes	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Gottfried, <<I assume the cyclicity will continue. In general it seems best to expect past behavior to repeat. So, I take note of predictions that call for a multi-year semi equipment boom, but do not invest expecting it.>> I'm toying with your assumptions here. Believing that the cyclicity will continue has nothing to do with whether or not you believe in a multi-year equip boom. It has been recently proven that there can be a multi-year equip bust, so it would stand to reason that a multi-year boom is possible, if not probable, especially at this point in time. And I think the most reasonable time to believe in the multi-year upcycle is after the worst recession the industry has ever seen. For the multi-year boom to happen would be to simply regress to the mean, which usually happens over time in whatever industy you choose to apply it to. No? D

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