Niko, After receiving the "Special Situations Analyst" newsletter,
I believe that's what was referred to on the Motley Fool Board as the
Forbes Special Situation report. I talked w/Mark @ Inv. Comm. & he was
not familiar with any Forbes report.
Since this ZMAX board is about as undiscovered as ZMAX stock, I'll
copy a couple of posts that I made on the ZMAX AOL message board:
<<Odds & ends:
ZMAX volume increased substantially beginning 02/06/97. That coincides
with when ZMAX began trading on the Berlin stock exchange. There have
been other factors (like the newsletter recommendation & other things
that I don't know about) in addition to being listed on German
exchanges that have surely contributed to high volume.
Average
Volume DOW NASDAQ ZMAX
02/05/97 50-60K prior to then 6747 1348 12.25
03/18/97 175K since 02/05 6897 1269 18.10
Increase/dec. 120K +/- +2.2% (5.9%) +47.7%
This price advance on high volume has taken place with no wild swings,
just a steady steamroller headed north.
Re: "Special Situations Analyst" newsletter - Mark said that Inv. Comm.
couldn't post info from this newsletter, but he was very much aware of
it. Mark said that 100,000 copies of letter were printed; thus far,
50K have been mailed w/50K to go.
Mark continues to emphasize ZMAX strength in Europe. Original
financing came from European banks & financial institutions.
ZMAX partnership w/HWP includes HWP Europe.
IMHO, the party hasn't even started yet. Some reasons:
1. The newsletter gives us (or me, anyway) the first pro forma #'s
that I'm aware of, & they look strong. Terms like "highly conservative
estimate" & "modest projections" make these #'s look even better.
2. The market has been bashing y2k stocks in Q1 '97 (except for ZMAX
& a few others). This soon will pass. ZMAX strength in a weak market
(y2k sector and most of the technology sector) bodes well for ZMAX
longs.
3. ZMAX is a REAL PLAYER in a captive market with a definite deadline.
It's possible that we pass right on by the "irrational exuberance"
stage into the "mass hysteria" stage.
4. Mark @ Inv. Comm. is happy! This little-known investment technique
has worked since I first met Mark (over the phone) & ZMAX (over 10
points ago). It's a fairly simple equation: Happy Mark = ZMAX price up.
Ignore this one at your own risk. <g>
5. ZMAX is "undiscovered". "How can you say this?" you ask. Here's my
(il)logic: How many other stocks are out there that meet the ALL OF
the following criteria:
a. Price increase of 47% in the last 1 « months; 200++% in last 4-5
months with no wild price gyrations?
b. Stock "turning over" every 17-18 days?
(3+M shares in the float/175K average daily volume since Feb. 5)
c. Here's the kicker - After meeting criteria 1 & 2, the stock has
yet to be discovered by every "bear in the forest"? Nobody's crashed
the party, `cause nobody even knows we're having a party (yet)>>
<<Last post (I promise) until we have some real news to talk about
(I've got a bunch riding on ZMAX, so I'm looking under every rock):
A comparison - ZMAX vs. DDIM
Note: This is NOT to bash DDIM - I think DDIM has a good product &
will make themselves (& stockholders) plenty of $ over the next 2-3
years, but there's just not much to compare to as yet.
I owned DDIM for awhile . . . those $ are now riding with ZMAX.
ZMAX DDIM
# shares outstanding 10.2M* 3.798M
Stock price as of about 1:30pm on 03/19 17.00 48.75
Projected EPS - 1998 2.45** 4.00
PE based on 1998 projected EPS 6.94 12.19
ZMAX price adjusted to PE of 12.19 29.87 (75% ahead of current price)
*Fully diluted, fully converted
**Per "Special Situation Analyst" newsletter, "The company projects
nearly $100M in net profit in total over 3 years, ranging from $1M in
1997 up to $69M in 1999." So I assumed $25M in 1998. This would yield
a 3-year total of $95M. With 10.2M shares, PE=2.45.
On the downside, DDIM projected 1997 EPS = $2.00. ZMAX, with $1M
projected earnings, falls far below this. IMHO, regarding y2k stocks,
the market will be forward-looking in establishing prices, and 1998
isn't too far to look ahead.
Another comment regarding "ZMAX is still undiscovered" - (Yes, this
is a STOOPID way to look at things, but it helps make a point) -
# posts since 01/26/97 (I used this date because that's when Motley
Fool started new DDIM folder, so I don't have to count):
DDIM - # posts on Motley Fool - 322 # posts on SI - 192
ZMAX - # posts on this board - 80 " " " - 58
See, I told ya it was stoopid, but IMSO (in my stoopid opinion), it
backs up the "undiscovered" claim.
It's no consolation, but if it's true that "Misery loves company",
ZMAX is't the only stock getting beat up today.>>
Although our train has turned southbound for the last couple
of days, I don't think it'll be too long before we reverse course.
Good luck,
David |
