>>anonymous fellow who wrote roughly 7 billion dollars worth of AMZN calls in the offshore french offering<<
Where is this info from?
Do you know the strike price, expiration date, and the number of shares involved?
You did say $7B is notional amount, but is it notional at $220, or at $90, big difference in the number of shares.
From risk management perspective, there is only one person in the world who could have done this! Not even Kleiner Perkins/Doerr could have done this. Even if Kleiner Perkins has 10 times more shares than its 2.8% of AMZN, there is no reason for Kleiner Perkins to do this. THERE IS ONE PERSON AND ONE PERSON ONLY IN THE WHOLE WORLD WHO COULD HAVE DONE THIS!
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BTW, speaking of risk management, a word of caution:
in your new thread #Subject-29103
you stated:
>>>The model portfolio:
AOL July 90 puts (AOESR) 1 9/16 50% of portfolio
AMZN July 90 puts (QZNSR) 2 9/16 40% of portfolio
DCLK July 70 puts (QWESN) 3 10% of portfolio
<<<
No matter how smart a person is, if he repeatedly bets his entire portfolio on double or nothing bets, he is going to lose the entire portfolio sooner or later, for one day he is going to have a bad roll of dies. If one's entire portfolio is very small compared to the earning potential of his labor, it's OK (but not advised) to make double or nothing bets. Because, in such circumstance, one's networth include the present value of potential future earning.
[Of course, the present value is adjusted for any uncertainty in potential future earning]. In such circumstance, losing the entire "model portfolio" is not as devastating, although still quite dire.
Short-term far out of money options are clearly such high risk/high reward bets, in fact it's worse, it's more like quadruple or nothing or worse, with odds strongly in favor of nothing, assuming the prevailing volatility.
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Warning to the leveraged bulls on risks:
If you have a leverage internet portfolio, and came within a CPI report of having to dust off your resume last week as some threader stated, you need to at least get rid of all margins.
If you are counting on the cavalry widely known the glorious e-run to come to rescue, you'd better at least get rid of all margins.
Every one here remembers the glorious e-runs of the past. Fighting the last war has its dangers. For funny things can happen on the way to the glorious e-run this time. The last army of Heather of TYSON'S CORNER #reply-10099636 raised from selling her townhouse is probably positioned in anticipating this e-run. And that may be where she will fight her final battle and meet her final Waterloo. |
