At the moment, it's hard to buy anything. I think many companies are getting fairly valued. I have been buying GMGC, which is very risky. I have wondered if it is wise to buy Ramtron, RMTR, which is also very risky.
The first is a play on bringing voice to the Internet and using it over standard phones. They just got a deal to work with Excite@Home and they are working with Intuit. They are an older company that has tried several things with no luck. They seem to be technically timely, but just miss the point of opportunity. They developed a basis for Internet, and then html took off. They made an operating system for handheld computers, then MS announced Win CE. They seem to have some great technical minds and some far reaching patents, but can they make a success selling? They have some new management who has had just enough time now to really start getting it together and perhaps it will bear fruit in the next 6 months. Certainly looks like a company many other companies would dearly like to own.
Now, they are getting sold off on good news. Probably over sold. Might see them go to 4.50 soon, or even higher if they get news. I keep waiting for some killer news and when it comes, they sell off. Really has me confused.
Nov they announced Intuit would make a voice interface for quicken.com. Next, they said they were doing market trials with Qwest. Then they did a joint show with Microsoft bringing a voice interface to the AutoPC using sidewalk.com, although they've not announced any deals there. Then, they announced they would be the voice providers for Wireless Knowledge, a very interesting joint venture between Microsoft and Qualcomm. Then, they announced BellSouth would re-sell the service. There was surely a deal that was coming with Netscape, but it was either delayed or shelved due to AOL acquisition. And now a new product, which could be as big a Hotmail, called myTalk. mytalk.com Which will also be included in Excite's plans for being the one stop portal.
Then, I started to wonder if the recent tarnish on Rambus would give Ramtron a better chance. It went from 1/2 to 3/4, which would have been a nice play, but I didn't buy in. Now, it seems Rambus is sort of back in favor, but it still looks like other memory will have a chance. Ramtron has a division called Enhanced Memory Systems, which makes a very fast DRAM that could compete. It looks like IBM will be using it, but I don't know.
Maybe the company just has bad management and will never make it?
I'm also interested in Vari-L, VARL which makes chips for cell phones. I think in general cell phones and software to make smart cell phones are very interesting. I also think there are probably some good Internet software plays. Maybe even some of the Internets have come down enough to buy, but that's not a strong feeling.
I thought Phone.com PHCM was interesting, but it got ahead of my target. Qualcomm is probably a good buy as is Nokia even though they are very high. I have also been trading in and out of AT&T to good advantage. They seem to have great ambition, which I think is very interesting.
Harmonic (HLIT) and Antec (ANTC) are providing equipment to build out the cable networks into 2 way service. HLIT could be exploding sales if they can be the only providers in return path Metro DWDM. They are a little high and I would look at any dip as a buying op. Antec is probably a little better price, but HLIT might have better technology. Both will get huge revenues in the coming years.
I would think Hutchinson Tech (HTCH) is a very good buy if it dips near 20. Probably a good long term at this price, but I feel they will have a test in the next week or so. They make a part for disk drives and the Wall Street often thinks they have no serious competition. Actually, they have some competition from Japan, but it's hard to quantify. Anyway, they have very good prospects.
What are your interests? I saw you were posting a lot to IDT, but I've not got a good handle on their business.
Maybe you have good contacts to know about Ramtron. They are very cheap now if they can get something going. Could be a 4 to 10 time play if they can get some positive news going on either their DRAM or FRAM business. They have to weather shorts though who are playing the convertible bond angle. That's also hurting GMGC.
Regards,
Mark |
