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Technology Stocks : CustomTracks Corporation (CUST)

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To: Mike M who wrote (1021)6/28/1999 7:23:00 AM
From: Tai Jin  Read Replies (1) of 2514
 
Neither you nor I will clearly recognize those technologies that will succeed until after they have.

The point I'm making is that success does not come overnight especially when new technologies are involved and social change and/or acceptance is required. Even if CUST has the right solution to be successful, market acceptance will take years. There are many examples of stocks that have ridiculous valuations based on potential earnings 20-50 years from now that have recently come down to earth because to value a company in that way is utterly ludicrous. So far CUST has no proven technology and no market acceptance. Whereas success will take time, failure will be quickly judged.

A recent example of a consumer product and technology which failed is DIVX. It was based on the assumption that people find it inconvenient to return video tapes to the store. Well, they were wrong and Circuit City had to pull the plug. They also seemed to have forgotten about the failure of video on demand, to which DIVX bears some resemblance.

...tai
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