Everyone:
A brief message to touch on the points that you all have made in response to my post.
1. I urge everyone to read Frank Collucio's reply to my message. I have been hearing rumblings to this effect. Also Frank is the single best informed person on all of SI as far as I can tell, so I also urge everyone to read each and every post Frank has ever made.
2. My admittedly sketchy understanding of the Gorilla investment thesis says that true gorilla's have some sort of natural monopoly market power. In that case, I'm not sure any company will be Gorilla over the entire carrier architecture. LU will emerge the biggest winner IMHO because: A. They have the technology scope to deal with the increasingly complicated carrier network, B. They have the technology lead in communications software - perhaps the biggest opportunity for next-gen networks, C. Strong positions in Optical and Wireless, D. The best customer list in the industry, E. Leadership in ATM, Access, and SS7 through Ascend, F. Deep, deep, talent in management and engineering.
3. I like NT, just not as much as LU. NT is a leader in optical, number 2 in routing technology, OK in everything else. It's too big a market for only one player, so NT will do well.
4. Qualcomm is in an interesting position, and I agree that it could emerge as a wireless "gorilla" but I'm not sure the likely revenue streams justify the current stock price. Remember, patents have a life of 17 years, and QCOMs are already 4-5 years old. QCOM has not shown itself to be a good designer of products, just a good creator of basic technology. |
