The '02 numbers are exciting, but a little suspicious to me, in as much as they look the same as projections made over a year ago, when G* was expected to start in early '99. Makes me wonder if they're updating the forecast to reflect a reasonable ramp up rate. For one thing, to get an average of 3.4M subscribers in '02, means something like quadrupling the initial phone production rate of 40K/month, by mid '01. And for 3.4M subscribers to generate 3B$ in revenue means about 160 MoU/month; seems a little optimistic to me...
Well, the marketplace will tell us soon enough...meantime, I hope management focuses on the things it can control or influence directly, like GW rollout and user terminal production and design. I have a couple of pet peeves about both:
1. GW coverage in 9/99 is not good, and the plans to make it better by 1/00 are not clear. Of the nine GWs said by BLS to be operational at turn-on, France, Italy and Korea can't be expected to generate much revenue (from their own countries, at least); Brazil, China, Canada and the US lack countrywide coverage. Seems to me that only in Argentina and S. Africa will we have practically national coverage. That's going to make marketing difficult elsewhere, especially in N. America, IMO. I'd like to see the W. Canada and Mexican GWs get up fast. I'd also like to know what if any coverage of E. Europe, S. Europe, N. Africa and middle East is licensed for provision by the Italian and French GWs.
2. I'm not satisfied with the "dual" and "tri" mode handset approach which seems to mean that a US G* user roaming in Europe is stuck with satellite-only mode and vice versa. I'd like to know if/when there will be a really "global" phone. |
