Dear Moe:
The ultimate decision in making an investment belongs to you and no one else. Like anything else you listen all sides and then based on the facts available you make the decision. You state:
> Twice in the recent past I had doubts about the stock and was
> about to sell above 30. These posts are my proof.
> But I read your highly convincing statements about the great
> outlook for Sun, and I decided to hold. Now, I am down so far, that
> I could have bought a couple of Sparc machines with that money.
I am sorry that you did not sell at $30. In fact I am sorry that I did not sell at $35 and then buy it back now! Believe me with the numbr of shares I have right now everytime SUNW goes down by 1/8 or 1/4 I lose money also BIG TIME! But if I had the crystal ball believe me I would not be working as a software engineer practically 24 hours a day and instead would be in Tahiti in a beach front mansion with my wife! I invest based on the research and my understanding of the company and unless I dont know (let me put it this way, unless I 'think' what appears to be the facts) about the foundation of the company I do not invest in that company. Once invested I set a target price and till I reach that target price I will not 'consider' selling. I have had SUNW for almost 2 1/2 years now and my target price has been at $95/shr (or $47.5/shr after the split). And I WILL NOT SELL even if it gets to be $47.49/shr! I have learned that discipline and patience are the most important factors of any investment. Having said this I have to admit that this may not be the wisest thing to do. I could have sold SUNW many times within the past 2 1/2 years and bought it back at lower price later. But thats the thing. I am NOT a trader. I am an investor! I have an uncle who recently started investing in stocks and everytime SUNW goes down he calls me and tells me he could have sold yesterday and made a bundle and could have bought it back at lower price. I really have given up on him and dont really know what to tell him anymore. People's psychology when it comes to investing is very short. I used to be like that many years ago and I learned that hard way that is wrong! If you buy a business like a Restaruant some days you get customers and some other days you may get none but hopefully if the location and the food is good your restaurant will always make you money and in the long run your children can inherit it and make money also!
All I can tell you is that Sun has a strong foundation. And if I express my feelings and thoughts on SUNW are my own opinion to share. I have learned one thing and this I recommend to you also: When you invest in something the first thing you should do is to look for reasons as why you SHOULD NOT invest in this company, and then look for reasons as to why you SHOULD invest in it. Be pessimist at first and look for big and little negative aspects of your investment before looking for positives. In case of Sun the positives in my humble opinion outweigh the negatives greatly (but that is my opinion, you may look for other things).
As for your SUNW investment always keep in mind that, and I believe I have stated that many times before, if you are a trader or worried about your investement in the short run (lets say 6 months to a year) then SUNW (or for that matter no tech. stock) is NOT for you and you may put your money into a CD or a money market fund. But if you have at least 12 to 18 months view of your investment then SUNW can be a very good 'potential' again IMHO basedon the facts available at this time (and remember with technology things change very quickly).
You state:
> Why do you think Sun now decided to go on this massive
> advertising campaign?
One reason may be that they are getting ready for the launch of NCs. Remember NCs are mostly meant to be for people who know nothing about computers and/or internet (like my uncle). NCs are meant to be like TVs, and VCRs. Now do you criticize RCA or Sony for advertising on TV?
You ask:
> And, how is Sun supposed to make much money from Java? They
> make their money from servers and work stations?
Well in my humble opinion I stated in the following posts:
Please see:
techstocks.com
techstocks.com
techstocks.com
You state:
> I hope your high opinion of Sun is correct. But, didn't Apple seem
> like a great company before the stock began its collapse...
The problem with Apple was their lack of openness. Everything was proprietary. When PCs came out the hardware side became open (you buy the CPU from Intel, the DRAM from Micron, the monitor from Magnovox, etc.), but the Software was (and still is) kind of proprietary (Microsoft only!). With the internet model Sun has introduced Software will no longer be a proprietary concept. Java (and now ActiveX) will make it possible for software to become just like hardware (no proprietary vendor can control one particular sector). You can build a software application using different components from different vendors. So Sun is just like the opposite of Apple. They have introduced a true open environment (both software and hardware). And today the more you show flexibility and openness the more successful you can become.
You state:
> but I should have sold when I had my doubts a few weeks ago. If I
> manage to eventually get out of this unscathed, I will make sure to
> buy stocks in the early stages of their advance, not near the end
> when investor doubts are surfacing.
Please do let me know if you find a formula to this. I am sure not only you and I but millions of investors out there will be more than glad to know when exactly to buy and when to sell.
Anyway, again in my humble opinion if you are a trader or have a very short tem view of your investment then SUNW is definitly, and I dont know how to empahsize on this, not the place you want to put your money. But over a 12 to 18 months from now (assuming you bought the stock at least 2-3 months ago) SUNW is a great potential (and again this is my opinion only).
Best Regards,
- Addi Jamshidi |
