P.T. B.:
I happen to agree with you that dial-up access is going away,
because the next generation of internet services will have a much
greater video content - video on demand, real time video conferencing
and chat groups, etc. (imagine what the SI threads are going to be
like when we can all see each other?), and dial up access speeds won't
cut it. The question is, how quickly will this come to pass?
Here's some of the latest data I have (millions, rounded):
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
US Households 101 102 103 104 105
US Households Online 26 34 42 52 67
US Total Broadband 1 2 5 9 16
US Total Dial Up 25 32 37 43 51
Total WWW Users 97 132 170 228 320
So, you are wrong on at least two counts:
(1) Dial up access is not going away, no matter what rosy scenario
you want to paint of the rate of broadband deployment.
(2) Second, AOL's future will only be bleak if AOL's management has
its collective head in the sand, sits on its rear end and does
absolutely nothing for the next three years. IMO, that's not likely.
One of the reasons I invest in companies is the quality of the
company's management, and whatever you might think of AOL, you can't
deny that they've managed to claw their way to the top of the current
heap over the last two years or so. My bet is that AOL will continue
to adapt to changing markets and technologies, and that they'll
continue to grow the top line of the business at somewhere between
50% and 100% per year. The business is AOL's to keep and grow, what's
your rationale for stating so conclusively that AOL's future is bleak?
David T. |
