David,
Your households-online numbers are interesting. I have no idea where you got them but, assuming for the sake of discussion that they are more or less accurate projections, they allow for some odd growth comparisons. Of the 25.74% of US households online in 1998, almost all of them, 24.75%, used dialup. By 2001, though 63.80% of US households are projected to be online, only 48.57% of US households will use dialup. Translated back to absolute numbers, that gives double the dialup customers by 2001, a 19.51% compounded annual growth rate. That suggests a substantial slowing of AOL's dialup growth. Broadband, starting from a much smaller base of customers, is projected by your numbers to grow at 200% per year. Obviously, that growth rate for broadband is the reason AOL needs to implement its "AOL Anywhere" strategy as soon as possible. How much AOL's overall subscriber growth will slow over the next few years is becoming more important every day.
..............................1998............2001......compounded growth rate
Households online..25.74%..........63.80%.........26.69%
Broadband.............00.90%..........15.24%........200.00%
Dialup..................24.75%.........48.57%..........19.51%
Best,
--Steve |
