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Technology Stocks : Mapics, Inc. (MAPX)

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To: cape radical who wrote (132)6/28/1999 8:12:00 PM
From: Byron Angel  Read Replies (1) of 141
 
cape radical,
It's shaping up to be a tough year for the ERP folks. BAAN is in the news today lining up a $75 million line of credit in case they run into cash flow problems. I felt very good buying MAPX at $4 a couple of months back, because at that price the downside was virtually nil. Now, however, the stock has gone from $4 to $10 in just a couple of months, so I'm wondering how much upside is left. Of course, since I bailed out way too early in the $7 range, it could be argued that I don't know diddly about where this thing is headed. But I'm a little wary of your revenue growth and operating margin assumptions. The company is certainly not going to make those numbers this year, given the short term problems in the ERP industry. It will also be difficult to hit those kinds of numbers in the long run as the industry matures. I'm currently in RWDT, which I think is now much more attractively valued than MAPX.

Good luck,
Byron

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