As far as this emphasis on T's "Brand Awareness," everyone needs
to keep in mind that it goes for Long Distance on a global scale
since T's reliability is second to none in Long Distance (we recently
tried one of the "Discount" calling cards that accesses least-cost
routing and, all else being equal, grabs a Sprint trunk: the cost
was great, the ease of use was fine, but the transmission was really
bad and, in our opinion, was not worth the savings so we'll stick
with AT&T for Long Distance).
However, people have to remember that "Brand Awareness" within the
local calling areas is even stronger for the local providers since,
after all, that is who we write the checks to each month and that
is who our operator service comes from and, if you're lucky enough
to have one of the good local providers (PAC, SBC, AIT, BLS), then
a desire to switch to T when it begins offering local service is
nonexistent.
But if you're unlucky enough to be in the position that we are in
with GTE as a service provider, then, in our opinion, switching to
T when it arrives is an attractive proposition. The problem is,
though, that switching to T will not alleviate us from GTE since, to
get access to T, we'll still have to trunk down to the GTE office
and then trunk over to the AT&T side. That is, unless T does indeed
come in with a viable wireless option for local service.
No matter how you look at it, though, it is going to be years before
T gets itself into a position where it can regain any meaningful
market share and once again become a good investment.
The Bells and other local providers that already have the infrastructure that is in place and paid for are in a much better
position to get into long distance (once it's approved) and they're
the ones that, IMO, will be the better investment for the near-term.
Also, the T has chintzy dividends that haven't been raised in years
and may end up getting cut whereas the Bells have generous dividends
and, note, PAC and SBC just announced that they are once again
raising the dividends.
There are a lot of different scenarios in the Telco arena right now
and it's anybody's guess as to whom the ultimate winners and losers
will be so the only thing that investors can do right now is weigh
the pros and cons: IMO some of the locals (like SBC at 50 or so) are
a much better buy than T at 34 and, I think, T may even fall back
into the 20's in the near term. Remember that T was dead money at
27 for years while all the other telcos were making investors rich. |
