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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Bob Brinker, Jr. who wrote (6327)6/28/1999 11:19:00 PM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
No doubt the real impact of Y2K will be non-existent, or nearly so. A few strange things will happen to electronic devices that might be interesting or amusing, but nothing critical should happen at least to computers. Of more interest will be what the impact of Y2K is on human behavior. My wife's sister called recently from rural Minnesota and said that everyone up there was telling her to take all her money out of banks and stock up on groceries and ammunition before the end of the year. Now if enough people do this kind of silly stuff, there could be an impact.

For example, suppose people start pulling money out of the market just because they fear a Y2K market collapse? That could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Or suppose people start saving extra money in case there is a Y2K recession? Again, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Computers I understand, and we can program to behave reasonably. Crowd psychology is quite another thing, and if something unusual gets started, the Fed will have to act quickly. I do know that the FED is already printing extra currency, especially in larger denominations, to make sure that there is plenty available for stuffing mattresses, <VBG> so hopefully they will be prepared to guide us through this unusual opportunity for bizarre personal behavior.

Or to put it differently, forget the computers, it's the people we need to worry about.

Carl
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