Saclac,
I enjoyed your post, but I look at these issues from a slightly different angle.
You did write "INTC will feel the same threat that Microsoft feels from Java as Samsung and other RAM manufacturers make strides in their intelligent ram (IRAM) technology, simplified: putting microprocessors in the ram (currently in 1 MB, now scaling to 16) eliminating the portion of the latency. You can bet your stock that INTC skunkworks are working on this technology, and will attempt to "Intelize" this tecnolgy just as Microsoft is attempting to "Redmond-ize" Java. "
I wouldn't say that INTEL is going to Intelize this technology. I would say that INTEL is a leader in this area and they are developing their own competing solution. INTEL is working with a company called RAMBUS to have new RAM configurations available and optimized for the MERCED. While Samsung and others can attempt to come up with some competing product, I'm not sure what they will put it in.
I am one who personally believes that the proper paradigm for high tech and biotech industries is increasing returns. The old commmmoditization\classical economic models can not account for everything that is happening.
You write, "Just like Peruvian shrimpers, freezing up last years record catch, and selling out of freezer stock during this years lack of harvest... (buy or get low, sell high)."
We are moving towards negligible inventory. Look at companies like DELL. They are not selling out of "freezer stock", they are builiding and ordering Just In Time. 14 days of inventory float or less. When Intel turns on a dime, DELL turns on a dime. They are profiting by wringing enormous amounts of money out of the supply chain. Thus the rapid change and evolution in products benefits everyone. And the great news is that prices can stay the same or even get lower while the INTEL's, DELL's, and MSFT's of the world continue to increase revenues.
The Peruvian shimpers I would agree are caught in the old paradigm. They don't have much flexibility. I hope that you can also see, that there are some major differences at work within companies like INTEL.
P.S. When RAMBUS goes public, I will be buying on the first day.
Brian Malloy |
