HI Tom; Your onto something beyond what I'v looked at, given
if mergers and take overs offset the IPOs , it seems that
would also hang on how many were cash deals vs stock deals,
the net would not just be the number of issues but more
in the total amount of shares that are floated.
While the market can handle more shares over time, I think
sudden increases are bound to cause pull backs.
In many cases mergers are at a premium , which for a short while
jacks up the price of the stock being acquired, however it don't
reduce the total float of shares when it's final if it was
at a premium and not in cash then the total shares out are increased.
I don't know how to get the data, but would love to measure
the total "float" of the market over time, as I tend to think just
counting issues may not take the analysis far enough.
The TWE IPO put a lot of shares on the market, some of the IPOs
that faired better floated far less shares.
Buy backs take the float down, but at this time many of the buy
backs are not what they look like, if they are done with borrowed
money it's window dressing.
While the pundits have every one looking at earnings that's
also a narrow view how do we get total debt to equity of the
market, I fear it's gone up a lot in the last year.
AS a whole Likely faster than earnings, they use slight of hand
in buying back shares to increse the short term EPS, when they
do it by floating bonds.
The junk bond market is begining to show overload,
Mutual funds I track that deal in them are having a rough
time of it.
Jim |
