VECO has the additional benefit that they also sell to industry and to semis. It is true that due to strong sales to drive makers combined with weak sales to the semis, the share of sales to semis has fallen to 20-25%. However I would guess that that percentage could rise significantly over the next several quarters, while sales to the disk sector could fall back a bit, say to 50%. Thus VECO is partially insulated from the drive cycle. Also VECO is bottoming here, and if disk sales explode next year as predicted, VECO could end up with volume based sales in addition to technology sales, and the stock could easily explode to the upside.
On the other hand, SEG is not far from its bottom, either, and they are very well positioned to benefit from an explosion in high end storage that is expected soon. As I posted earlier, projections show that over the next several years the share of computer hardware dollars spent on disk storage is expected to grow rapidly. SEG and IBM are the main players in high end storage, and both should do well. SEG also has software sales and some interests in VRTS and Dragon Systems, I believe, that also insulate it from the drive cycle. Thus I don't see now as a good time to sell SEG, either.
As for QNTM, I have no opinion. I am not selling my VECO here, and I wouldn't mind buying a bit more. I am also considering acquiring some SEG, though. Therefore I can't really advise you to sell one to buy the other, or vice versa.
Good luck,
Carl |