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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 689.17

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Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (18776)	6/29/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: Les H	of 99985

FOMC: Day 1 Bonds are little changed this morning as the FOMC begins the first of a two-day policy meeting. Thirty-year bonds are up 6/32, yield 6.08%. Two-year notes are unchanged, yield 5.69%. We will receive word of the Fed's policy decision tomorrow. Bewitching hour is approximately 11:15, pacific. Of the 29 primary dealers, (those doing business directly with the Fed), all 29 are looking for a 25 basis point rate increase. It will be important to watch the Fed's statement to see if the bias for tightening remains or has been dropped. This will have an important bearing on market direction. New home sales for May fell 5.1%. Expectations were for a decline of 2.1%. Higher mortgage rates may finally be impacting the housing market. Other factors still remain positive for housing: high employment, strong consumer confidence and a strong equity market. Don't worry, be happy. The Conference Boards consumer confidence index for June rose to 138.4, its highest level since 1968. This was the eighth consecutive rise, the best showing since the early 70's. Expect confidence to remain strong as long as employment is high and stocks are strong. In addition to the FOMC meeting, tomorrow will bring data on leading economic indicators, the Chicago purchasing managers survey and the APICS survey. Have a great day. bonds-online.com

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