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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)
LU 2.415+1.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: William Hunt who wrote (8389)6/29/1999 5:28:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun  Read Replies (2) of 21876
 
Well, it is by no means certain that 5 winners means each will get a fifth. Lucent is pretty confident it will get alot more than 20% of this business before all is said and done. I tend to agree for the following reasons:

1. Lucent has performed very well on the previous contract, completing deployment more than a year ahead of schedule - All of the complaints happened early, under AT&T's watch.

2. Lucent can beat every one of these competitors on delivery lead times, a key consideration for the Saudi's who want nearly a million lines delivered ASAP.

3. Lucent and Ericsson are the only vendors able to support both wireless and wireline on the same switch platform, a key consideration for this contract.

4. Lucent has thousands of trained installers and maintentnace personel in country today, again giving them an extraordinary advantage in bringing up systems quickly.

5. That said, it probably does make sense to award to multiple equipment providers as: A. even LU wouldn't be able to ramp to deliver a million lines on its own as rapidly as the Saudi's want, B. International politics demands participation by others, C. incompatibilies in phone equipment are highly unlikely, nearly every major telco worldwide has multiple switch vendors.

I expect Lucent to have taken away as much as 50% of the total when everything is settled.
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